Can we improve forecasts of currency crises by using a large number of predictors? Which economic variables are most important to predict currency crises? This paper evaluates the performance of traditional Leading Indicators and a new Diffusion Index (DI) method as Early Warning Systems to monitor the risk and forecast the likelihood of the recent currency crises in East-Asia. We find that, re...

Qian et al. (2010) (henceforth QRR) have assembled an impressively rich data set on external default, banking, and monetary crises. This paper is part of an ambitious project on placing crises in the proper historical perspective (e.g., Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). It is an extremely valuable research agenda, as much of modern sovereign debt literature has focused on recent (post 1980) episodes,...

On the basis of a distinction between communal and exchange relationships (Clark & Mills, 1979; Mills & Clark, 1982), the following predictions were made: (a) Members of exchange relationships would keep track of individual inputs into joint tasks and (b) members of communal relationships would not. These hypotheses were tested in three studies. In each study, subjects worked on a task with a p...

This study examines the concepts of conflicts and crises and their antecedents in Nigeria. It makes a clarification of the causes of crises in Nigeria due mainly to poverty and unjust allocation of the available resources. An attempt is made to identify strategies adopted by Nigerian government on crises resolution and their shortcomings. The study finally presents ways forward towards a better...

Recent crises in emerging markets have generated a fundamental re-appraisal of theoretical models of international capital flows. It is now generally recognised that crises have occurred in circumstances that cannot be explained by first generation models of speculative attacks that seemed quite acceptable only a few years ago. First generation models (Krugman 1979; Flood and Garber 1980) and t...

This paper suggests, first, that a simple theoretical framework is useful in explaining financial crises in emerging economies. Second, it reviews the East Asian financial crises of 1997-98 . Third, the paper examines the origins of Argentina’s crisis of 2001-02. Fourth, it presents a comparative analysis of both crises, highlighting their similarities and differences. Finally, the conclusions ...

The epidemiology of rabies in dogs in Zimbabwe is described using data from 1950, when rabies was re-introduced after a 37-year absence, to 1996. Dogs constituted 45.7% of all laboratory-confirmed rabies cases and were the species most frequently diagnosed with the disease. Slightly more cases were diagnosed from June to November than in other months. From 1950 to the early 1980s, most dog case...

Chris Kimble and Isabelle Bourdon Abstract: This paper explores the contribution of communal structures such as Communities of Practice (CoPs) on Intra-organizational Knowledge Management (KM). First, we look at intra organizational knowledge management and explore the role that information systems can play. We introduce the idea of "Systèmes d'Aide à la Gestion des Connaissances" SAGC (Systems...

Alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs), where members of the same sex and population show distinct reproductive phenotypes governed by decision-rules, have been well-documented in males of many species, but are less well understood in females. The relative plasticity hypothesis (RPH) predicts that switches between plastic ARTs are mediated by changes in steroid hormones. This has received much...

Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of crises in terms of economic growth and controls via a treatment type model for possible sample selection governing the o...