We develop a sound and strongly complete axiomatic system for probabilistic logic in which we can model nonmonotonic (or default) reasoning. We discuss the connection between previously developed logics and the two sublogics of the logic presented here.

We study the implied default distributions for the iTraxx-CJ tranches by means of the Principle of Maximum Entropy. The profiles are quite different from those of some popular probabilistic models. We show how to analyze the correlation structures, the conditional default probabilities pi,j and conditional default correlations ρi,j . Here the subscript i,j means that the default probability and...

The Credit Risk+ model is one of the industry standards for estimating the credit default risk for a portfolio of credit loans. The natural parameterization of this model requires the default probability to be apportioned using a number of (non-negative) factor loadings. However, in practice only default correlations are often available but not the factor loadings. In this paper we investigate ...

Debt management policy for governments of developing countries must balance conflicting objectives. The structure of explicit and implicit government debt influences the amount of lending private creditors are willing to extend, contractual debt service costs, the probability of default and the costs of default. Because default is not relevant for governments of industrial countries, their debt...

Evidence from many countries in recent years suggests that collateral values and recovery rates on corporate defaults can be volatile and, moreover, that they tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This link between recovery rates and default rates has traditionally been neglected by credit risk models, as most of them focused on default risk and adopted...

Evidence from many countries in recent years suggests that collateral values and recovery rates on corporate defaults can be volatile and, moreover, that they tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This link between recovery rates and default rates has traditionally been neglected by credit risk models, as most of them focused on default risk and adopted...

We develop a Bayesian approach to estimating duration models and apply it to the default data of high yield bonds. The instantaneous probability of a firm completing Chapter 11 increases up to the twenty-first month in Chapter 11 then declines towards zero.  1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

The relation between physical probabilities (rating) and risk-neutral probabilities (pricing) is derived in a large market with a quasi-factor structure. Factor sensitivities and default probabilities can be estimated for all kinds of credits on historical rating data. Since factor prices are obtainable from market data, the model allows the pricing of non-marketable credits and structured prod...

In this paper, we aim at 1. giving formulas of prices and replicating-strategies of defaultable securities(e.g., bonds, swaps, derivatives) in incomplete market, and 2. giving “solvable” examples of quantile hedging strategies in incomplete market. Considering an incomplete market that consists of tradable assets and an unhedgeable defaultable security, whose non-predictable default time has st...

We develop a dynamic nonlinear, noisy REE model of credit risk pricing under dispersed information that can theoretically and quantitatively account for the credit spread puzzle. The first contribution is a sharp analytical characterization of the dynamic REE equilibrium and its comparative statics. Second, we show that the nonlinearity of the bond payoff in the environment with dispersed infor...