This paper provides a simple analytic formula for valuing default swaps with correlated market and credit risk. We illustrate the numerical implementation of this model by inferring the default probability parameters implicit in default swap quotes for twenty two companies over the time period 8/21/00 to 10/31/00. For comparison, with also provide implicit estimates for the standard model (a sp...

In this paper, we present the macro stress test with a credit risk approach for banking system of Iran during the period 2004Q1-2019Q4. The goal is to evaluate the vulnerability of the banking system through credit risk to the country economic shocks. In this regard, the developed method of Wilson (1997) Credit Portfolio View model including macroeconomic variables and default rate has been use...

We propose a hierarchical Marshall-Olkin model of countrywide systemic risk. At the lower level, we model the systemic risk of a crisis within the banking system (that we call “within” systemic risk) and at the higher level we model the probability of a joint default of the banking system and the public sector (that we call “between” systemic risk). As for the within systemic risk, we propose a...

nowadays, credit risk is recognized as one of the most important bankruptcy factors of banks and financial institutions. in order to manage and control this risk, design of credit rating models is undeniable necessity. credit rating is used to identify the probability of credit default and on the other side classify the customers into two groups: good and bad accounts. until now, various statis...

In this paper we have combined fundamental analysis and contingent claim analysis into a hybrid model of credit risk measurement. We have extended the standard Merton approach to estimate a new risk neutral distance to default metric, assuming a more complex capital structure, adjusting for dividend payments, introducing randomness to the default point and allowing a fractional recovery when de...