This paper explains why seemingly irrational overconŽdent behavior can persist. Information aggregation is poor in groups in which most individuals herd. By ignoring the herd, the actions of overconŽdent individuals (“entrepreneurs”) convey their private information. However, entrepreneurs make mistakes and thus die more frequently. The socially optimal proportion of entrepreneurs trades off th...

This paper elaborates a simple and general decision model based on the so-called con rmation rules. Con rmation rules are generated separately for each diagnostic class so that selected rules cover (and should hence be able to reliably predict) a signi cant number of cases of the target class. At the same time, a con rmation rule should not cover the cases of non-target diagnostic classes, and ...

Ronald S. Jarmin is with the Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. Overview This paper presents preliminary results from an investigation of the effects of manufacturing extension on the productivity dynamics of client plants. Previous econometric studies of manufacturing extension had very little time series information. This limited what researchers could sa...

Ordinary least squares (OLS) and stochastic frontier (SF) analyses are commonly used to estimate industry-level and firm-specific efficiency. Using cross-sectional data for English public hospitals, a total cost function based on a specification developed by the English Department of Health is estimated. Confidence intervals are calculated around the OLS residuals and around the inefficiency co...

In this paper we present a framework for testing various algorithms that deal with transpositions in Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). When using transpositions in MCTS, a Direct Acyclic Graph (DAG) is progressively developed instead of a tree. There are multiple ways to handle the exploration exploitation dilemma when dealing with transpositions. We propose parameterized ways to compute the mean...

We model a risk-averse firm owner who wants to maximize the intertemporal expected utility of firm’s dividends. The optimal dynamic control problem is characterized by two stochastic state variables: equity value, and profitability (ROA) _rm. According empirical evi-dence, we let follow mean reverting process. solved in quasi-explicit form computing both dividend debt. Finally, calibrate actual...

There are many situations for statistical process in which we have both random and vagueinformation. When uncertainty is due to fuzziness of information, fuzzy statistical control charts play animportant role in the monitoring process, because they simultaneously deal with both kinds of uncertainty.Dealing with fuzzy characteristics using classical methods may cause the loss of information and ...

We discuss in this paper Sche e’s method for constructing simultaneous con!dence intervals which hold for all linear combinations of the parameters subject to the weight vector being restricted to a convex cone. c © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

We consider a data mining problem in a large collection of unstructured texts based on association rules over subwords of texts. A two-words association pattern is an expression such as (TATA, 30, AGGAGGT)) C that expresses a rule that if a text contains a subword TATA followed by another subword AGGAGGT with distance no more than 30 letters then a property C will hold with high probability. Th...