We show that a purely private monetary system is inherently unstable due to the role of endogenous debt limits in the creation of private money. Because people’s ability to issue notes (personal liabilities that circulate as a medium of exchange) depends on beliefs about the exchange value of their notes in future periods, there exist multiple equilibria. Some of these equilibria have undesirab...

This paper develops a general equilibrium model with the banking system and the reserves market, where the central bank a¤ects the federal funds rate through open market operations. We show that when the coe¢ cient that measures the response of the federal funds rate to the in‡ation rate falls below a threshold value, which is very small, the economy will have two steady states, where the low-e...

The Learning Cost of Interest Rate Reversals* In this Paper, we suggest a new motivation for why central banks appear averse to reversing recent changes in their interest rate. We show, in a standard monetary model with forward-looking expectations, data uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, that there is a learning cost associated with interest rate reversals. A policy that frequently reverse...

This paper incorporates limited asset markets participation in dynamic general equilibrium and develops a simple analytical framework for monetary policy analysis. Aggregate dynamics and stability properties of an otherwise standard business cycle model depend nonlinearly on the degree of asset market participation. While ‘moderate’ participation rates strengthen the role of monetary policy, lo...

This paper considers the role of monetary policy in mitigating the effects of financial crises. I suppose that the economy occasionally but infrequently experiences crises, where financial variables directly affect the broader real economy. I analyze the formulation of monetary policy under such financial uncertainty, where policymakers recognize the possibility of financial crises, which leads...

This paper investigates the effects of financial institutions issuing contingent capital, a debt security that automatically converts into equity if assets fall below a predetermined threshold. We analyze a tractable form of contingent convertible bonds (“coco”) and provide a closed-form solution for the price. We quantify the reduction in default probability associated with contingent capital ...

The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and infl ation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI infl ation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causalit...

The optimal policy response to a low-probability extreme event is examined. A simple policy problem is solved for a sequence of different loss functions: quadratic, combined quadratic/absolute-deviation, absolute-deviation, combined quadratic/constant, and perfectionist. The paper shows that, under some simplifying assumptions, each of these loss functions puts less weight on a low-probability ...

This paper analyses the distribution of seigniorage in an enlarged European Monetary Union (EMU) when the new EU member countries from Central and Eastern Europe adopt the euro. In principle each country of a monetary union contributes to seigniorage in proportion to the country’s demand for base money. However, the actual distribution of seigniorage by the European Central Bank is made in acco...

Financial crises in countries are often accompanied by an out‡ow of foreign portfolio investment and an in‡ow of foreign direct investment (FDI). We provide an agency-theoretic framework that explains this phenomenon. During crises, agency problems a¤ecting domestic …rms are exacerbated, and, in turn, external …nancing constrained. Direct ownership can circumvent these problems, but during cris...