In this paper we use new statistical methods to examine the connection between economic expectations and support for the government in the U.S.A. For this purpose, we analyse the order of integration for Congressional Approval and Economic Expectations from a fractional point of view. The results show that though both individual series can be specified in terms of fractional processes, the unit...

The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the winter of 2002– 03 raised the specter of a new, unknown and uncontrollable infectious disease that spreads quickly and is often fatal. Certain branches of economic activity, notably tourism, felt its impact almost at once, and investor expectations of a safe and controlled investment climate were brought into question. Part of the ...

We show that dependence on foreign energy can increase economic instability by raising the likelihood of equilibrium indeterminacy, hence making ‡uctuations driven by selfful…lling expectations easier to occur. This is demonstrated in a standard neoclassical growth model. Calibration exercises, based on the estimated share of imported energy in production for several countries, show that the de...

We describe two collaborations in which psychologists and economists provided essential support on foundational projects in major research programs. One project involved eliciting adolescents' expectations regarding significant future life events affecting their psychological and economic development. The second project involved eliciting consumers' expectations regarding inflation, a potential...

This paper investigates the relationship between short term and long term in‡ation expectations in the US and the UK with a focus on in‡ation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations a¤ect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows us to uncover the relationship between in‡ation pass through and various explanatory variables. We relate our empirica...

Stress in financial markets influences economic agents’ behavior by creating uncertainty and changing the expectations. Critical financial stress can lead to financial crisis. Financial crises are among the events always present in the world economy. Iran is not an exception. This paper aims to study the impact of financial stresses on Iran’s per capita GDP. By using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distr...

We use a user-cost model to study how dispersed information among housing market participants a¤ects the equilibrium house price. In the model, agents consume housing services, speculate on price changes and are disparately informed about local economic conditions. Information dispersion leads agent to form heterogeneous expectations about housing demand and prices. Optimists, who expect high h...