"We have deep depth" -Yogi Berra famously remarked decades ago about the New York Yankees. Much like the Yankees of Yogi Berra's years, the U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient over the past year in spite of enormous challenges, policy setbacks, and a number of ominous external shocks. As we expected, the more gloomy scenarios were averted, but the close-calls were too many and, at times,...

Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This study bridged that gap; it determined forecast needs among water managers, translated forecasts to meet those needs, and shaped drought decision making ...

Background and aims: Since accurate forecasts help inform decisions for preventive health-careintervention and epidemic control, this goal can only be achieved by making use of appropriatetechniques and methodologies. As much as forecast precision is important, methods and modelselection procedures are critical to forecast precision. This study aimed at providing an overview o...

PARTIAL INFORMATION FRAMEWORK: BASIC THEORY AND APPLICATIONS Ville A. Satopää Shane T. Jensen Lyle H. Ungar Many real-world decisions depend on accurate predictions of some future outcome. In such cases the decision-maker often seeks to consult multiple people or/and models for their forecasts. These forecasts are then aggregated into a consensus that is inputted in the final decision-making pr...

In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The modeling framework incorporates diurnal and annual periodicity modeling by peri...

This article explores economic forecasting by examining the various social settings and networks economic forecasters are embedded in. It discusses how forecasters meet with political and economic actors and also how members of forecasting teams embody main aggregates of the economy to commonly produce a consensus about the economic future. The data underlying this article were collected from t...

Accurate visibility forecasts, being necessary for military operations and field applications of opticallysensitive equipment such as advanced electro-optical (EO) systems, remain as a challenging scientific problem. One reason is because large spatial and temporal variations exist, not only with aerosol physical and optical properties, but with emission sources. Clearly, to further advance aer...

We consider modeling a time series of smooth curves and develop methods for forecasting such curves and dynamically updating the forecasts. The research problem is motivated by efficient operations management of telephone customer service centers, where forecasts of daily call arrival rate profiles are needed for service agent staffing and scheduling purposes. Our methodology has three componen...

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premiums on monthly exchange-rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical exchange rate models, and construct combined forecasts based on Bayesian model averaging. More importa...