In this paper we explore the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations of consumers by analysing the comovement in shortand long-run expectations. If inflation expectations are firmly anchored, a transitory shock should influence the short-run inflation expectations but not effect long-run inflation expectations. Utilizing the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer’s rotating panel micro...

I develop an extension of the standard New Keynesian model to monetary policy regime switching to study the impact of uncertainty around the future inflation target. First, I fully characterize how the responses of current inflation and output to inflation target uncertainty depend on the monetary policy rule. If monetary policy is passive, inflation may increase far beyond the anticipated incr...

Consider the problem of a government that wants to control its debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio, while taking into consideration the evolution of the inflation rate of the country. The uncontrolled inflation rate follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics and affects the growth rate of the debt ratio. The level of the latter can be reduced by the government through fiscal interventions. T...

BACKGROUND Advances in burn care over the past 50 years have brought about remarkable improvement in mortality rates such that survival has become an expected outcome even in patients with extensive injuries. Although these improvements have occurred in all age groups, survival in older adults still lags far behind that in younger cohorts. This study determines the outcomes of older adults with...

We provide a new way to filter US inflation into trend and cycle components, based on extracting long-run forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We operate the Kalman filter in reverse, beginning with observed forecasts, then estimating parameters, and then extracting the stochastic trend in inflation. The trend-cycle model with unobserved components is consistent with numerous ...

We describe the strong spectral evolution that occurs during a gamma-ray burst (GRB) pulse and the means by which it can be analyzed. In particular, we discuss the change of the light curve as a function of energy and the spectral lag. Based on observed empirical correlations, an analytical model is constructed which is used to describe the pulse shape and quantize the spectral lags and their d...

N recent years, many countries have experienced “stagflation,” a period of high and rising inflation and unemployment. Over this time, higher inflation increasingly has come to be blamed for higher unemployment and reduced growth of real output. This contrasts sharply with previously held notions that there was either a long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment or a “natural rate of ...

Future changes are expected in precipitation under climate change, therefore, projected the oceanic and terrestrial components. However, it remains poorly elucidated how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence these changes. Therefore, we aimed to perform a space-time causality analysis of regional ENSO impacts on by using Granger method as function eight temporal lags (lags 1–8). The...

Inflation is an economic phenomenon that significantly impacts financial stability and the welfare of society. The movement inflation in Kota Palu challenging to explain using theories, as there are factors difficult incorporate into models, such COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2020 2022, which impacted transportation, housing, other services components. However, accurately predicting rates remain...

Monetary authorities have often voiced their concerns about a high debt level that could potentially restrain their ability to control the short-term interest rate as an instrument of monetary policy. However, monetary policy rules in the literature do not account for such constraints. This paper derives an augmented interest rate rule in which the response of the interest rate to expected infl...