Predictions about the future are commonly evaluated through statistical tests. As shown by recent literature, many known tests subject to adverse selection problems and cannot discriminate between forecasters who competent uninformed but predict strategically. We consider a framework where forecasters' predictions must be consistent with paradigm , set of candidate probability laws for stochast...

Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts obtained from climate and land surface conditions could significantly improve water and energy management. Since climate forecasts are updated on a monthly basis, we evaluate the potential in developing operational monthly streamflow forecasts on a continuous basis throughout the year. Further, basins in the rainfall–runoff regime critically depend on the ...

Precisely and accurately predict the electricity demand is an important task for the government in each country. In addition, establishing the lowest upper bound for the electricity demand also avoids unnecessary power plant investment. To this end, a hybrid fuzzy linear regression (FLR) and back propagation network (BPN) approach is proposed in this study. In the proposed methodology, multiple...

OBJECTIVE To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system. METHODS The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkag...

We study a matched sample of individual stock market forecasts consisting of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts. This allows us to test for the quality of forecast quantification methods by comparing quantified qualitative forecasts with actual quantitative forecasts. Focusing mainly on the widely used quantification framework advocated by Carlson and Parkin (1975), the so-called “prob...

Independent forecasts obtained from different temporal aggregates of a given time series may not be mutually consistent. State-of-the art forecasting methods usually apply adjustments on the individual level forecasts to satisfy the aggregation constraints. These adjustments require the estimation of the covariance between the individual forecast errors at all aggregation levels. In order to ke...

The accruals anomaly, demonstrated by Sloan (1996), generated significant excess returns consistently for over four decades until 2002. Since then, the accruals anomaly has apparently disappeared. In this paper, I argue that one factor responsible for this decline is the increasing incidence of analysts’ cash flow forecasts which has provided markets with information about likely future accrual...

on one hand, oil is the greatest energy resource in the world and, on the other hand, because of the role of oil revenue in the economic of oil producer countries, such as iran,it is vital for these countries. so it is necessary to recognize different affective parameters on oil market for these countries. in this research, we try to forecast oil price as an important variable in world wide oil...

This paper identifies and analyzes previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts produced by management, analysts, and extrapolative techniques indicated that: (1) management forecasts were superior to professional analyst forecasts (the mean absolute percentage errors were 15.9 and 17.7, respectively, based on five studies using data from 1967-1974) and (2...