Studies that estimate the Phillips curve for the U.S. use mainly national-level data and find mixed evidence of nonlinearity, with some recent studies either rejecting nonlinearity or estimating only modest convexity. In addition, most studies do not make a distinction between the relative impacts of short-term vs. long-term unemployment on wage inflation. Using statelevel data from1982 to 2013...

IN AN EARLIER ISSUE OF Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, George Perry argued that the Phillips curve, measured in the conventional way, had shifted to the right in recent years, and estimated that a 4 percent overall unemployment rate would produce about 1 /2 percentage points more inflation per year than was the case in the mid-1950s.1 Perry's conclusion was based on a wage equation that ...

The Covid-19 pandemic has had numerous detrimental effects on Indonesia's economy. One is a rising unemployment rate due to slowing economy, resulting in fewer employment prospects. This study aims forecast the Indonesia between 2023 and 2025, explicitly following pandemic. research utilises time series data for period 2005 2022. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test indicates that are stationary ...

This paper investigates the impact of unemployment on crime using a country-level panel data set from Europe that contains consistently-measured crime and police force statistics. Unemployment has a positive impact on monetary crimes, and instrumenting unemployment with the exchange rate produces larger estimates than those obtained from OLS specifications. The unemployment rate is decomposed i...

Panel Survey (BHPS). The data are used with the permission of all responsible authorities, who bear no responsibility for the analysis or interpretations presented here. improvement of the paper. All errors and deficiencies remaining in the paper are our own. ABSTRACT This paper investigates unemployment from the angle of unemployment spells experienced by individuals in Germany and the United ...

Structural unemployment differs from cyclical unemployment by not disappearing in cyclical booms. In economic theory, structural unemployment is usually analyzed in terms of the concept of equilibrium unemployment (the “natural unemployment rate” in Friedman’s terminology). Two elaborate concepts of equilibrium unemployment – the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU) and t...