Failures in critical infrastructures can cause major damage to society, and thus there is a need for a common approach to cross-sector risk analyses. This paper presents such an approach, which includes an extended preliminary hazard analysis and detailed risk analysis of electricity supply, carried out in a case study. The risk analysis approach constitutes an important basis for analyzing int...

1 Macrodiversity against Shadowing So far, the diversity techniques that are discussed are used to mitigate the eeects of small scale fading. These techniques are often called microscopic diversity. Similar diversity techniques exist in literature with the objective to combat shadow fading, which is known as macroscopic diversity. With macroscopic diversity, signals that are received from a mob...

Risk analysis is an important tool for developers to establish the appropriate protection level of a system. Unfortunately, the shifting environment of components and component-based systems is not adequately addressed by traditional risk analysis methods. This paper addresses this problem from a theoretical perspective by proposing a denotational model for component-based risk analysis. In ord...

This paper presents a general framework based on copulas for modeling dependent multivariate uncertainties through the use of a decision tree. The proposed dependent decision tree model allows multiple dependent uncertainties with arbitrary marginal distributions to be represented in a decision tree with a sequence of conditional probability distributions. This general framework could be natura...

Fraud risk analysis on data from formal information sources, being a ‘paper reality’, suffers from blindness to false information. Moreover, the very act of providing false information is a strong indicator for fraud. The technology presented in this paper provides one step towards the vision of harnessing real-world data from social media and internet for fraud risk analysis. We introduce a no...

Contrast to identical rationality, non-identical rationality is laid as the basis for option pricing, realized by a family of non-additive fuzzy measures mathematically, which naturally induces the new concept and analyzing methods, fuzzy options. Then as demonstration, the paper applies the fuzzy options to default risk analysis for municipal bonds in China.

Prior research argues that the effective usage of a mandatory system varies with users’ individual differences and engagement, the tasks carried out, and the system features applied. In this study, we analyze individual-level system usage to improve performance by adapting and expanding the number and configuration of systems in use. Thus, we address IT executives’ increasing challenge of users...

Emergency preparedness, planning, and response suffer from shortcomings that impede the potential for effectiveness. In this article, we provide an overview of Emergency Preparedness and Management that is based upon our research, including insights into the shortcomings of current practices, a discussion of relevant theories (e.g., High Reliability Organizations, muddling through) and recommen...

Controlling ground water quality is a major environmental goal for New Jersey citizens. Controlling nitrate nitrogen in ground water is particularly important because of the risk it poses to human health, and because of its ability to enter streams and lakes and to enhance the harmful process of eutrophication. In order to control nitrate levels in ground water and surface water, it is necessar...

The Estonian Tax and Customs Board (MTA) has identified that Estonia is losing over 220 million euros a year due to avoidance of value-added tax (VAT). The parliament proposed legislation that makes companies declare their purchase and sales invoices for automated risk analysis and fraud detection. The law was vetoed by the Estonian President on the grounds of confidentiality breach and unneces...