BACKGROUND Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model. METHODS We developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically ...

BACKGROUND The United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers for policy planning, for monitoring development goals, as inputs to economic and environmental models, and for social and health research. The UN is considering producing fully probabilistic populatio...

This article integrates two methods that analyze the implications of various causes of death for life expectancy. One of the methods attributes changes in life expectancy to various causes of death; the other method examines the effect of removing deaths from a particular cause on life expectancy. This integration is accomplished by new formulas that make clearer the interactions among causes o...

Hypertension can lead to cardiovascular diseases and other chronic conditions. While the impact of hypertension on premature death and life expectancy has been published, the impact on health-adjusted life expectancy has not, and constitutes the research objective of this study. Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) is the number of expected years of life equivalent to years lived in full heal...

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effect of immigration on life expectancy in Australia for the period from 1981 to 2003, and to compare life expectancy of the Australian-born population with that of other countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). METHODS Standard life-table methods using age-specific all-cause mortality and population data from 1981 to 2003 we...

In a two-period model with agent heterogeneity we analyze a pension reform toward a stronger link between contributions and benefits (as recently observed in several countries) in a pension system with a Bismarckian and a Beveridgian component. We show that such a policy change reduces the educational level in an economy. The life expectancy differential between skilled and unskilled individual...

IMPORTANCE The relationship between income and life expectancy is well established but remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVES To measure the level, time trend, and geographic variability in the association between income and life expectancy and to identify factors related to small area variation. DESIGN AND SETTING Income data for the US population were obtained from 1.4 billion deidentified...

This is a very complex issue given that the issue involves many factors, including genetics, socioeconomic status, culture, and the quality and availability of healthcare services. Furthermore, it is not easy to define many of the above elements (e.g., culture, quality). Even if we could, determining the individual effects of components that we know can influence healthy life expectancy (HLE) (...

It has been established that under certain mortality assumptions, the current value of the Cross-sectional Average length of Life (CAL) is equal to the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy. This correspondence is important, because the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy, or lagged cohort life expectancy (LCLE), has been discuss...