This paper introduces a qualitative measure of ambiguity and analyses its relationship with other measures of uncertainty. Prob­ ability measures rela.ti ve likelihoods, while ambiguity measures vagueness surrounding those judgments. Ambiguity is an impor­ tant represent.ation of uncertain knowledge. It deals with a different type of uncertainty modeled by subjective probability or belief.

A complex system usually encompasses agents, as they are known from modern Artificial Intelligence. Within the system dynamics, interactions between agents are affected by perturbations (uncertainty), which often make modeling difficult. This paper introduces a modeling approach based on a function that quantifies uncertainty: the fuzzy measure of ambiguity. A model based on ambiguity minimizat...

The material in this chapter is taken, often verbatim, from [Halpern 2003], which the reader is encouraged to consult for further details and references. Supported in part by NSF under grants CTC-0208535, ITR-0325453, and IIS-0534064, by ONR under grants N00014-00-1-03-41 and N00014-01-10-511, by the DoD Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) program administered by the ONR und...

We examine a family of intrinsic performance measures in terms of probability distributions that generalize Hellinger distance and Fisher information. They are applied to quantum metrology to assess the uncertainty in the detection of minute changes of physical quantities. We show that different measures lead to contradictory conclusions, including the possibility of arbitrarily small uncertain...

Research related to aggregation, robustness, and model uncertainty of regulatory risk measures, for instance, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), is of fundamental importance within quantitative risk management. In risk aggregation, marginal risks and their dependence structure are often modeled separately, leading to uncertainty arising at the level of a joint model. In this paper...

Recent studies in the marketing literature developed a new method for eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) with an open-ended elicitation format: the Range-WTP method. In contrast to the traditional approach of eliciting WTP as a single value (Point-WTP), Range-WTP explicitly allows for preference uncertainty in responses. The aim of this paper is to apply Range-WTP to the domain of contingent va...

This paper explores some of the aspects of embedded retaining wall design, in particular the interrelationship between system uncertainty and the use of factors of safety in the various design procedures. System uncertainty reflects the mismatch between idealised retaining wall behaviour and what is observed in practice. This feature is modelled using the concept of fuzzy sets where the degree ...

Commodities have become a new tool for global diversification among stocks, currencies, and other assets. Their dynamics statistical characteristics crucial to financial research. Furthermore, in the connected world of today, importance uncertainties is greater than ever. This article examines comovements between energy commodities influence uncertainty measures through bi, partial multiple wav...