This paper develops default priors for Bayesian analysis that reproduce familiar frequentist and Bayesian analyses for models that are exponential or location. For the vector parameter case there is an information adjustment that avoids the Bayesian marginalization paradoxes and properly targets the prior on the parameter of interest thus adjusting for any complicating nonlinearity the details ...

We study the behavior of diffusions coupled through their drifts in a way that each component mean-reverts to the mean of the ensemble. In particular, we are interested in the number of components reaching a “default” level in a given time. This coupling creates stability of the system in the sense that there is a large probability of “nearly no default” as opposed to the case of independent Br...

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QUANTIFIED REFLECTIVE LOGIC AND QUANTIFIED DEFAULT LOGIC Frank M. Brown Abstract: Reflective Logic and Default Logic are both generalized so as to allow universally quantified variables to cross modal scopes whereby the Barcan formula and its converse hold. This is done by representing both the fixed-point equation for Reflective Logic and the fixed-point equation fo...

A decision method for Reiter's default logic is developed. It can determine whether a default theory has an extension, whether a formula is in some extension of a default theory and whether a formula is in every extension of a default the­ ory. The method handles full propositional de­ fault logic. It can be implemented to work in polynomial space and by using only a theorem prover for the unde...

Default ARTMAP combines winner-take-all category node activation during training, distributed activation during testing, and a set of default parameter values that define a ready-to-use, general-purpose neural network system for supervised learning and recognition. Winner-take-all ARTMAP learning is designed so that each input would make a correct prediction if re-presented immediately after it...

Default risk model is provided by using option pricing theory in a fuzzy framework in consideration of a simple company comprised of a single type of the debt that is free from profit payment and a single type of capital that is liberated from dividend. The model is based on the assumption that asset value of a company is the sum of total market value of stock and debt value, considering a situ...

In this paper I argue that we do not under stand the process of default reasoning A number of examples are given which serve to distinguish di erent default reasoning sys tems It is shown that if we do not make our assumptions explicit we get into trouble with disjunctive knowledge and if we make our assumptions explicit we run foul of the lottery paradox None of the current popular default rea...

A number of prioritized variants of Reiter’s default logic have been described in the literature. In this paper, we introduce two natural principles for preference handling and show that all existing approaches fail to satisfy them. We develop a new approach which does not suffer from these shortcomings. We start with the simplest case, supernormal default theories, where preferences are handle...

A major credit shock can induce large intra-day variation margin payments between counterparties in derivatives markets, which may force some participants to default on their payments. These payment shortfalls become amplified as they cascade through the network of exposures. Using detailed DTCC data we model the full network of exposures, the shock-induced payments, the initial margin collecte...