This paper compares the cycles in UK sectoral output generated from both univariate and multivariate unobserved components models. Common trends and cycles are found among the sectors and it is found that these help to identify the cycles in the multivariate model. JEL Classi...cation: C32, E32.

the effect of economic growth and free trade on environment and transnational pollutions is one of the most important current discussions in the field of environmental economics. nowadays, the economics, social and developmental consequences of the climatic changes around the world is increasingly accepted and approved. in fact, the environment is considered as one of the key elements for susta...

This paper suggests a bootstrap testing procedure for determining the rank of cointegrated systems. The properties of the new testing procedure are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the test compares favourably to that of the widely used procedures for determining cointegration rank proposed by Johansen (1988). JEL classi cation: C12; C15; C32.

Recent work in the macroeconometric literature considers the problem of summarising efficiently a large set of variables and using this summary for a variety of purposes including forecasting. This paper applies a new factor extraction method to the extraction of core inflation and forecasting of UK inflation in the recent past. JEL Codes:C13, C32

Education, Health and Wages This paper develops and estimates a model with multiple schooling choices that identifies the causal effect of different levels of schooling on health, health-related behaviors, and labor market outcomes. We develop an approach that is a halfway house between a reduced form treatment effect model and a fully formulated dynamic discrete choice model. It is computation...

in this research, potential effects of oil and monetary policy shocks on economic growth of iran are examined and share of each of them on economic growth are calculated during 1974-2006 period and potential mutual effects of those shocks by using the vector auto regressive (var) model are analysed. results of this research show that oil shocks significantly affected the economic growth in iran...

The linkages between inflation and the economy’s cyclical position are thought to be strongly affected by the credibility of monetary authorities. The author complements existing research by estimating a small forward-looking model of the U.S. economy with endogenous central bank credibility. His work differs from the existing literature in several ways. First, he endogenizes and estimates cred...

Realization of comparative advantage (David Ricardo) raises issues of income distribution that emerge when specialization gains are achieved. While the Stolper-Samuelson theorem ‘predicts’ that because of trade liberalization in ‘rich countries’ like Austria or Germany wages may fall and real incomes of capital owners might increase, some doubts are raised whether continuous cuts in relative wa...

This paper is aimed at analyzing the interrelation between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Energy Consumption (EC) in Mexico during period 1970-2014. To do that, we carry out a cointegration test Granger causality analysis. The empirical results from show stable link growth rates of FDI EC long run. While Granger’s that short run there unidirectional rate toward EC, while medium bidirection...

A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest – the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies that the natural rate of interest varies over time and depends on the trend growth rate of output. In this paper we apply the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, potential ou...