The purpose of this study is to analyse the dynamic response of a set of euro area macroeconomic variables to monetary policy and technology shocks. We do so by conducting simulations on three different models of the euro area. The first modelling approach corresponds to structural VAR models (SVAR), the second approach uses the NiGEM multi-country model developed by the National Institute of E...

Theoretical models of the relationship between investment and the current account impose restrictions on the joint dynamic behavior of these variables. These restrictions come in two forms. One imposes causal orderings on investment and the current account. The other restriction concerns the permanent responses of these variables to different shocks. We use these restrictions to identify empiri...

In an empirical two-sector model, it is investigated if permanent shocks originating from one sector have an effect on production in the other sector. The VAR contains three variables: employment in the private sector, and value added in industry and in the rest of the private sector. I found that shocks originating from one sector have no effect on production in the other sector, neither in th...

In this paper, I examine the effects of money supply, aggregate spending, and aggregate supply shocks on real US stock prices in a structural vector autoregression framework. Overall, the empirical results indicate that each macro shock has important effects on real stock prices. The real stock price impulse responses to the various macro shocks conform to the standard present-value equity valu...

How do aggregate quantities at the business cycle frequency respond to shocks to the spread between residential mortgage rates and government bonds? Using a structural VAR approach, we find that mortgage spread shocks impact the real economy by both economically and statistically significant magnitudes: a 100 basis point decline in the spread causes a peak increase in consumption, residential i...

It is emphasized that the shocks in structural vector autoregressions are only identified up to sign and it is pointed out that this feature can result in very misleading confidence intervals for impulse responses if simulation methods such as Bayesian or bootstrap methods are used. The confidence intervals heavily depend on which variable is used for fixing the sign of the initial responses. I...

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the importance of sticky prices in accounting for the variations and the persistence in real exchange rates. Vector autoregressions with five variables from two countries that always include the United States are estimated. Restrictions are imposed to identify a global shock, and two sets of country specific output shocks. One set of shocks is asso...

This paper evaluates VAR models designed to analyse the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the United States by considering three issues: specification, identification, and the effect of the omission of the long-term interest rate. Specification analysis suggests that only VAR models estimated on a single monetary regime feature parameters stability and do not show signs of mis-specifica...

Using the threshold structural VAR model, this paper examines the multiheterogeneity impacts of international oil price shocks on Chinese stock market in the background of financialization. The research finds: (1) the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns are different across sectors and the responses of stock returns are larger in bear markets. The nonlinear effects of oil supply shocks...

This paper examines the dynamic effects of oil price shocks in addition to the aggregate supply and demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in four sample economies: Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. We aim to discover whether oil price shocks play a crucial role in explaining output and domestic price fluctuation in small emerging economies after 1990s. We are also keen to assess...