Many existing mortality models follow the framework of classical factor models, such as Lee–Carter model and its variants. Latent common factors in are defined time-related indices (such κt model). Factor loadings, which capture linear relationship between age variables latent βx model), assumed to be time-invariant framework. This assumption is usually too restrictive reality datasets typicall...

Load forecasting is an important component for power system energy management system. Precise load forecasting helps the electric utility to make unit commitment decisions, reduce spinning reserve capacity and schedule device maintenance plan properly and it also reduces the generation cost and increases reliability of power systems. In this work, a fuzzy logic approach for short term load fore...

We develop a hybrid, real-time solar forecasting computational model to construct prediction intervals (PIs) of one-minute averaged direct normal irradiance for four intra-hour forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and 20 min. This hybrid model, which integrates sky imaging techniques, support vector machine and artificial neural network sub-models, is developed using one year of co-located...

The purpose of this paper is to consider how to forecast implied volatility for a selection of UK companies with traded options on their stocks. We consider a range of GARCH and logARFIMA based models as well as some simple forecasting rules. Overall, we find that a logARFIMA model forecasts best over short and long horizons. Key-words : Implied Volatility, Forecasting, ARFIMA, GARCH, log-ARFIM...

This paper presents an empirical exercise in economic forecast using traditional time series methods, such as ARIMA and unobservable components models (UCM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). We use monthly gross industrial output data for the state of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil) to perform a comparative exercise and access the relative performance of the different forecasting methods. The r...

Forecasting hourly electricity prices and their characteristic properties is a core challenge for energy generation companies trading houses. The short-term marketing purchase of usually managed with standardized products traded on different markets specific temporal resolution maturity. size scope the price forecasting literature has grown significantly in recent years, majority studies focuse...

In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Information Criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a bootstrap version of the EIC can be used where there is a single time series to be forecast. The EIC provides...

In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Information Criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a bootstrap version of the EIC can be used where there is a single time series to be forecast. The EIC provides...

The abundance and population structure of pseudomonads in soils collected from long-(1006 years) and short-(54 years) term grapevine monocultures in Switzerland were examined across five soil horizons within the 1.20e1.35 m range. Soil samples were baited with grapevine, and rhizosphere pseudomonads containing the biocontrol genes phlD (2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol synthesis) and/or hcnAB (hydrog...

Antoci et al. have argued that the horizons of the boost-rotation, Kerr and Schwarzschild solutions are singular, having shown that a certain invariantly-defined acceleration scalar blows up at the horizons. Their examples do not satisfy the usual definition of a singularity. It is argued that using the same term is seriously misleading and it is shown that such divergent functions are natural ...