The practical utilization of available modern as well as traditional weather forecasting systems builds herders' resiliency capacity to climatic shocks. The precision and reliability of the forecasting system determines its creditability and acceptance by the users to be proactive in the decisions they make based on the forecasted information. It has been postulated that traditional weather for...

While skilful forecasts of heavy rainfall are highly desirable for weather warnings and mitigating impacts, forecasting such events is notoriously difficult, even with the most advanced numerical prediction models, due to strong dependence on convective-scale processes. The large-scale circulation, other hand, typically more predictable. Weather patterns (WPs) a set circulation types obtained s...

During the period 24-25 July 2004, elevated convection produced rain totaling up to 5 inches across east-central Missouri. No rain was forecast by the 12 km Eta model over this area. The presence of two concurrent mesoscale convective systems rendered this event a particularly challenging one for numerical weather prediction. An analysis of the physical differences between the model forecast an...

Several data assimilation and forecast experiments are undertaken to determine the impact of special observations taken during the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) on forecasts of the 5 June 2009 Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell. The data used in these experiments are those from the Mobile Weather Radar, 2005 X‐band, Phased Array (MWR‐05XP), two ...

Cool season precipitation plays an important role in freshwater supply over the Southwest United States, which is marked by heterogeneous topographic and hydrologic scenarios. More accurate precipitation prediction is highly desirable for both the public and hydrological model users. Numerous studies indicate that ensemble forecasting provides more skillful weather forecasts than a single deter...

Product development can be motivated by “demand pull” from user needs or by “technology push” from research. Historically, new aviation weather forecasts have been motivated by “technology push” considerations, in which better scientific validation results were the principal criterion for the forecast “goodness”. For example, one might demonstrate that the forecast had a higher probability of d...

The sensitivity of numerical weather forecasts to small changes in initial conditions is estimated using ensemble samples of analysis and forecast errors. Ensemble sensitivity is defined here by linear regression of analysis errors onto a given forecast metric. We show that ensemble sensitivity is proportional to the projection of the analysis-error covariance onto the adjoint sensitivity field...

This paper describes an integrated solution to traffic conflict detection and resolution with weather avoidance in the Center-TRACON Automation System. An automatic conflict resolution algorithm developed and tested to resolve aircraft-to-aircraft conflicts is modified to reroute aircraft around convective weather constraints while avoiding traffic conflicts. The approach extends algorithms whi...

Surface solar radiation forecasting permits to predict photovoltaic plant production for a massive and safe integration of solar energy into the electric network. For short-term forecasts (intra-day), methods using images from meteorological geostationary satellites are more suitable than numerical weather prediction models. Forecast schemes consist in assessing cloud motion vectors and in extr...

Typical aircraft trajectory predictors use wind forecasts but do not account for the forecast uncertainty. A method for generating estimates of wind prediction uncertainty is described and its effect on aircraft trajectory prediction uncertainty is investigated. The procedure for estimating the wind prediction uncertainty relies uses a time-lagged ensemble of weather model forecasts from the ho...