Abstract While the IPCC Fifth Assessment Working Group I report assessed observed changes in extreme precipitation on basis of both absolute and percentile-based indices, human influence has rarely been evaluated indices. Here we conduct a formal detection attribution analysis four The indices include annual totals from days with exceeding 99th 95th percentiles wet-day 1961–90 (R99p R95p) their...

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has successfully provided the climate community with a rich collection of simulation output from Earth system models (ESMs) that can be used to understand past climate changes and make projections and uncertainty estimates of the future. Confidence in ESMs can be gained because the models are based on physical principles and reproduce many import...

To reduce the uncertainty of cloud feedback, models should prioritize evaluation response to surface warming. Using International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-H data sets, we quantified fraction different types warming in Tibetan Plateau (TP) and examined performance Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 reproducing response. Results showed multimodel ensemble mean (MEM) exhibite...

Abstract. Feedbacks play a fundamental role in determining the magnitude of response climate system to external forcing, such as from anthropogenic emissions. The latest generation Earth models includes aerosol and chemistry components that interact with each other biosphere. These interactions introduce complex web feedbacks is important understand quantify. This paper addresses multiple pathw...

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of temperature change mechanisms, and thus simulation prediction ability state-of-the-art climate models since most participating in phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) cannot simulate it. Here, we examine whether new-generation CMIP6 can reproduce recent slowdown, further ...

Abstract Meteorological flash droughts (MFDs) are sub-seasonal-to-seasonal drought phenomena characterized by rapid onset/intensification. This study assesses the changes in trends and hotspot regions of MFDs for present five future CMIP6 SSP forcing scenarios (SSP-FS) at global-, continental- regional-scales. Analysis with 12 GCMs indicates that globally, frequency, duration severity projected...

The most recent generation of climate models (the 6th Phase the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) yields estimates effective sensitivity (ECS) that are much higher than past generations due to a stronger amplification from cloud feedback. If plausible, these require substantially larger greenhouse gas reductions meet global warming targets. We show with more positive feedback also have coo...

Abstract. Deep and bottom water formation are crucial components of the global ocean circulation, yet they were poorly represented in previous generation climate models. We here quantify biases Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) North Atlantic (NADW) formation, properties, transport, extent 35 models that participated latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Several CMIP6 correctly form...

Abstract The current generation of Earth system models used by the United Nations to project future climate scenarios (CMIP6) relies heavily on marine biogeochemical track fate carbon absorbed into oceans. Here we compare 11 CMIP6 and find largest source inter-model uncertainty in their representation cycle is phytoplankton-specific loss rates zooplankton grazing. This over three times larger t...