We present an approach to goal recognition which uses a Dynamic Belief Network to represent domain features needed to identify users’ goals and plans. Different network structures have been developed, and their conditional probability distributions have been automatically acquired from training data. These networks show a high degree of accuracy in predicting users’ goals. Our approach allows t...

In this article, generalized game theory (GGT) is used to conceptualize and explain key socio-cognitive processes in multi-agent interaction, in particular belief revision. GGT is based on the mathematics of rules and rule complexes (drawing on developments at the interface of mathematics, logic, and computer science). Rule concepts are used to formalize game, social relationships, and role as ...

This report investigates methods for identifying the optimal (best overall, taking into account all benefits and costs) transportation emission reduction strategies. Current evaluation methods tend to undervalue mobility management (strategies that change travel behavior to increase transport system efficiency, also called Transportation Demand Management or TDM) due to various types of biases:...

Several axioms concerning probabilistic beliefs are examined here, and the relations between them are established, using belief spaces that generalize Harsanyi type spaces. Two axioms concerning highorder probabilistic beliefs are investigated in particular. The first is the triviality axiom, which says that one is certain (that is, has a belief of degree one) of one’s own beliefs. The second i...

It is widely believed, at least in scientific circles, that living systems, including mankind, obey the natural physical laws. However, it is also commonly accepted that man has the capacity to make "free" conscious decisions that do not simply reflect the chemical makeup of the individual at the time of decision--this chemical makeup reflecting both the genetic and environmental history and a ...

The evolution of belief systems has always been a focus of cognitive research. In this paper, we delineate a new model describing belief systems as a network of statements considered true. Testing the model with a small number of parameters enabled us to reproduce a variety of well-known mechanisms ranging from opinion changes to development of psychological problems. The self-organizing opinio...

In this paper, a possible worlds framework for representing general belief change operators is presented. In common with many approaches, an agent’s set of beliefs are specified by a subset of the set of possible worlds. The central intuition is that there is a distance given between every pair of possible worlds, giving the similarity of one world to another; the set of worlds together with th...

We first investigate whether or not ex post destruction can possibly alleviate the hold-up problem in a one-shot game between a supplier and a buyer. The answer is yes but only when the buyer believes that the supplier might be a Homo reciprocans agent with sufficiently strong propensity for reciprocity. Under incomplete information with informed supplier, investment is made feasible by the “mi...

In this paper we investigate the relationship between two prioritized knowledge bases by measuring both the conflict and the agreement between them. First of all, a quantity of conflict and two quantities of agreement are defined. The former is shown to be a generalization of the well-known Dalal distance which is the hamming distance between two interpretations. The latter are, respectively, a...

One’s inaccuracy for a proposition is defined as the squared difference between the truth value (1 or 0) of the proposition and the credence (or subjective probability, or degree of belief) assigned to the proposition. One should have the epistemic goal of minimizing the expected inaccuracies of one’s credences. We show that the method of minimizing expected inaccuracy can be used to solve cert...