Ketersediaan air bersih bagi masyarakat mempunyai peran yang sangat berpengaruh dalam meningkatkan kesehatan lingkungan dan masyarakat, serta mengurangi jumlah penderita penyakit berhubungan dengan bersih. Metode Box-Jenkins menggunakan variabel terikat data dimasa lalu tanpa melihat tersebut stasioner ataupun tidak. Penelitian ini metode bertujuan untuk meramalkan banyaknya disalurkan PDAM di ...

The study aimed to predict Iraqi agricultural and food imports for the period (2021-2027) using Box-Jenkins methodology. autocorrelation partial functions were used purpose of ensuring stability time series testing residual correlation, histogram probabilistic distribution residuals estimated model suitability chosen found an increase in both during studied period, light results reached, recomm...

Introduction: Frequency of traffic related mortalities is increasing worldwide. The present study aimed to predict deaths from road traffic accidents for the first time in Iran. Methods: All death statistics from traffic accidents in Iran between March 2004 and March 2011 were available for analysis. The Box-Jenkins time series model was used for trends purposes. Death from traffic accidents we...

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The basic assumption of a structural VARMA model (SVARMA) is that it is driven by a white noise whose components are independent and can be interpreted as economic shocks, called “structural” shocks. When the errors are Gaussian, independence is equivalent to noncorrelation and these models have to face two kinds of identification issues. The first identification problem is “static” and is due ...

Recently, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has evolved as a promising alternative to the standard backpropagation (BP) algorithm for training Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). PSO is advantageous due to its high search power, fast convergence rate and capability of providing global optimal solution. In this paper, the authors explore the improvements in forecasting accuracies of feedforward a...

The goal of this paper is to analyze the stochastic dynamics of childhood infectious disease time series. We present an univariate time series analysis of pertussis, mumps, measles and rubella based on Box-Jenkins or AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling. The method, which enables the dependency structure embedded in time series data to be modeled, has potential research app...