this paper estimates the determinants of inflation in iran using a linear and non- linear regression model over the period 1959-2008. in the model specification, the conventional variables (liquidity, production and exchange rate) as well as positive and negative oil revenue shocks, monetary disequilibrium, and demand gap are considered. the results show that nonlinear time series regression mo...

the real business cycle theory was applied to investigate the hypothesis of cyclical agreeable treatment of real wages, for men and women work force, in the iranian agricultural sector for the period of 1971-2006. on the basis of this theory, the impacts of supply side shocks (productivity and oil income shocks), are anticipated on the fluctuations of the real wages. the dominant effect of supp...

This paper examines two interrelated aspects of Asian economic dynamism and the management of external shocks, in the context of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from developing East Asia. Outward FDI from these economies has been growing rapidly, driven by deeper economic integration, more open FDI regimes, growing technological and financial sophistication, and rising savings levels. T...

Does it make us unhappier when we compare our consumption with that of the Joneses or our own past achievements? This paper tries an answer by bringing together two disparate literatures: the macro (growth) theory on habit formation and the applied literature related to the Easterlin paradox. Using the association of happiness and family income in the U.S. it calibrates a simple model of econom...

This article formalizes investor rationality and irrationality, exuberance and apprehension, to consider the implications of belief formation for the fragility of an economy’s financial structure. The model presented generates a financial structure with portfolio linkages that make it susceptible to contagious financial crises, despite the absence of coordination failures. Investors forecast th...

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of th...

Financial crises are often characterized by sharp reductions in liquidity followed by cascades of falling prices. Researchers are making progress in work to understand the levels of liquidity on a daily basis, but understanding the vulnerability of liquidity to market shocks remains a challenge. We develop an agent-based model with the objective of evaluating the market dynamics that lead the m...

Central banks have been faced with many conceptual challenges in the course of ensuring financial system stability. The list of problems includes the ability to predict the likelihood and severity of financial crises, the optimum level of prudential capital requirements, and the early detection of the risk of individual bank failure. This issue of the Bulletin highlights the results of analyses...

The Caucasus has seen numerous crises since the region gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some of these crises have not been resolved yet as evidenced by recent Russia-Georgia conflict. This paper seeks to analyze such crises within the framework of significant geopolitical changes unfolded by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The author argues that in the post-Sovi...

Democratisation in Zambia in the 1990s is assessed along with a review of approaches to explaining its limitations. A brief resumé of events between 1991 and 1998 is followed by a survey of the ‘conditions’ normally considered helpful to democracy are present in Zambia, chiefly socio-economic, cultural and associational values. The problems facing democracy are located in an international conte...