With the increasing number of quantitative models available to forecast the volatility of crude oil prices, the assessment of the relative performance of competing models becomes a critical task. Our survey of the literature revealed that most studies tend to use several performance criteria to evaluate the performance of competing forecasting models; however, models are compared to each other ...

The goal of this study was to identify a reliable GARCH model for modeling and forecasting each economic variable in Nigeria, including the price crude oil, consumer index, exchange rate, inflation rate. Monthly secondary data simulated sets were that used. Between January 2004 December 2020, are covered. Beta Volatility Coefficient (BVC) proposed detecting volatility research data. Using metho...

This paper explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventor...

During the first quarter of 2002, the price of crude oil averaged $19.67 per barrel. Four years later, in the first quarter of 2006, the average price of oil had risen to $63 per barrel. Indeed, the high price of oil may not be a short-lived phenomenon: Futures markets indicate that investors expect the price of oil to remain above $70 per barrel through 2008. For the postwar U.S. economy, the ...