Central Banks regularly make forecasts, such as the Fed’s Greenbook forecast, that are conditioned on hypothetical paths for the policy interest rate. While there are good public policy reasons to evaluate the quality of such forecasts, up until now, the most common approach has been to ignore their conditional nature and apply standard forecast e¢ ciency tests. In this paper we derive tests fo...

The article describes the flow of tourists to Republic Uzbekistan and methods analysis forecasting based on econometric modeling development process its seasonal characteristics. Econometric developed by foreign local scientists were analyzed divided into groups analyze changing predict future number. Among them, additive model in group time series reflecting seasonality tourist was found meet ...

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecas...

A method is proposed in this paper for estimating the uncertainty of a forecast from an econometric model. The method accounts for the four main sources of uncertainty: uncertainty due to (1) the error terms, (2) the coefficient estimates, (3) the exogenous-variable forecasts, and (4) the possible misspecification of the model. It also accounts for the fact that the variances of forecast errors...

The main objective of this study is to examine the dynamic impact import tariff reduction on major macroeconomic variables and its long-run implications for fiscal sustainability Ethiopia. In addition, it estimates increase in average consumption tax required compensate possible revenue loss sustainability. A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (RDCGEM) used assess increased ...

Analysts typically use a variety of techniques to forecast inflation. These include both ‘bottom-up’ approaches, for near-term forecasting, as well as econometric methods (such as mark-up models of inflation, which have been found to perform quite well for Australia – see de Brouwer and Ericsson (1998)). One of the econometric approaches to inflation forecasting which is sometimes considered is...

This paper reviews non-probabilistic approaches of modelling uncertainty, particularly in flood forecasting and introduces a fuzzy set theory-based method for treating precipitation uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling, which allows the temporal and/or spatial disaggregation of precipitation. The results of the fuzzy set theory-based method are compared with the probabilistic approach using...