My dissertation examines the stock market’s assessment of corporate mandatory and voluntary disclosure. Specifically, the first part of the dissertation investigates the stock market reaction to the mandatory segment reporting changes and the second part studies how the stock market assesses credibility of voluntary management forecasts. The dissertation is composed of two essays. The first ess...

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with increasing variance as the forecast horizon grows. Using analytical results we show that standard properties of o...

The predictive accuracy of various econometric models, including random walks, vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, are investigated using daily futures prices of 4 commodities (the S&P500 index, treasury bonds, gold and crude oil). All models are estimated using a rolling window approach, and evaluated by both in-sample and out-of-sample performance measures. The criteria ...

The effective tax on earnings embodied in the Social Security retirement earnings test has been as high as 50 percent. Despite numerous empirical studies, there is surprisingly little agreement about whether the earnings test affects male labor supply. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the earnings test for men using longitudinal administrative earnings data and more commonl...

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a widely used ensemble-based assimilation method, which estimates the forecast error covariance matrix using a Monte Carlo approach that involves an ensemble of short-term forecasts. While the accuracy of the forecast error covariance matrix is crucial for achieving accurate forecasts, the estimate given by the EnKF needs to be improved using inflation techn...

Abstract This paper uses the data from Chinese capital market to study relationship between cost stickiness, earnings forecast accuracy and stock price information content. The empirical results show that: (1) Cost stickiness significantly affects response coefficient of prices. Lower improves ability current returns reflect future earnings, which is manifested in higher (FERC). (2) reduces non...

This paper aims to investigate the effect of audit committee ethnicity, as part diverse cultures in Malaysia, on analysts’ forecast accuracy. In addition, this study investigates further interactions between unique Malaysia and earnings management determine whether ethnicity still plays a role management. Based 391 observations firms followed by analysts from year 2012 2014, our result indicate...