The paper discusses the problem of combining unreliable pieces of evidence in a (generalized) probabilistic setting. The popular Dempster's rule for combining evidence in Dempster-Shafer theory is criticized on two accounts. Firstly, Dempster's rule is claimed to be invalid, and secondly, the rule may fail to support intuitively acceptable conclusions. The reason for this is that the applicatio...

We study multilateral bargaining games where agents disagree over their bar-gaining power. We show that if agents are extremely optimistic, there may be costlydelays in an arbitrarily long finite game but if optimism is moderate, all sufficientlylong games end in immediate agreement. We show that the game with extremeoptimism is highly unstable in the finite-horizon, and we exam...

To characterize the regularity of distribution-path dependent SDEs in initial distribution which varies as probability measure on path space, we introduce intrinsic and Lions derivatives for measures Banach spaces, prove chain rule derivative Banach-valued random variables. By using Malliavin calculus, establish Bismut type formula functional solutions to with drifts. When noise term is also so...