Standard economic models predict that the choice of an exchange rate regime has important implications for the interdependency of national monetary policies, which is sometimes measured by the degree of inflation transmission across borders. In this paper, we examine how inflation rates in two small open economies, namely Hong Kong and Singapore, interact with that in the U.S. It is found that ...

In this paper we discuss D-Brane/Antibrane inflation as a concrete example of a bottom-up approach in string cosmology. After introducing the standard cosmology, inflation, we turn to the dynamics of D-branes, and find that an open string mode between the branes becomes tachyonic when the branes get to a critical distance. We then obtain a realization of hybrid inflation with two relevant field...

After joining the the euro, several countries with a history of high inflation (notable examples include Greece and Italy) experienced sharp reductions in inflation together with a prolonged build up of sovereign debt. In this paper we propose a rationalization for this phenomenon. To do so, we explore the interaction between inflation credibility and the debt dynamics that arise when an impati...

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in output growth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule in a timevarying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policy shocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time, but policy shocks account for a small fr...

It is shown that racetrack inflation can be implemented in a moduli stabilisation scenario with a supersymmetric uplifting D-term. The resulting model is completely described by an effective supergravity theory, in contrast to the original racetrack models. We study the inflationary dynamics and show that the gaugino condensates vary during inflation. The resulting spectral index is ns ≈ 0.95 a...

A nonlinear model of inflation and growth, with a fixed rate of money growth, is developed and its global dynamics analysed. These are compared with the local, linearised dynamics of the model. It is shown that the global dynamics of the model plausibly predict hyperinflationary bubbles, which are not present in the linearised version. Numerical simulations of the model are presented.

In the December 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), median projection for four-quarter core PCE inflation in fourth quarter 2025 is 2.1 percent. This same SEP has unemployment rising by nine-tenths, to 4.6 percent, end 2023. We assess plausibility this using a specific nonlinear model that embeds an empirically successful Phillips curve specification into structural model, identifying i...

We investigate the dynamics of the Higgs field at the end of inflation in the minimal scenario consisting of an inflaton field coupled to the standard model only through the nonminimal gravitational coupling ξ of the Higgs field. Such a coupling is required by renormalization of the standard model in curved space, and in the current scenario also by vacuum stability during high-scale inflation....

Inflation offers a simple model for very early evolution of our Universe and the origin of primordial perturbations on large scales. Over the last 25 years we have become familiar with the predictions of single-field models, but inflation with more than one light scalar field can alter preconceptions about the inflationary dynamics and our predictions for the primordial perturbations. I will di...