An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can ari.se in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on the Gaussian influence diagram, iterates over linear approximations to the inference problem.

3 INTRODUCTION In this paper we describe the fourth-stage of our six-step scenario-based approach to strategic planning, the scenario building. Having completed the trend and uncertainty analysis using the 'Impact/Uncertainty Grid' tool in stage three, we will present in this paper how plausible scenarios can be created based on the identified key uncertainties using the 'Scenario Matrix' tool ...

The dynamics of events occurring in continuous time can be modelled using marked point processes, or multi-state processes. Here, we review and extend the work of Røysland et al. (2015) on causal reasoning with local independence graphs for marked point processes in the context of survival analysis. We relate the results to the decision-theoretic approach of Dawid & Didelez (2010) using influen...

We propose the structured naive Bayes (SNB) classifier, which augments the ubiquitous naive Bayes classifier with structured features. SNB classifiers facilitate the use of complex features, such as combinatorial objects (e.g., graphs, paths and orders) in a general but systematic way. Underlying the SNB classifier is the recently proposed Probabilistic Sentential Decision Diagram (PSDD), which...

The determination of the best technology or modality to use in clinical situations is complicated by the need to deal with the multiple sources of uncertainty in the outcomes for any particular choice. An influence diagram, which combines actions, chance variables and utility functions, is the best method for modeling such decisions. Using Bayesian probability calculus, such a diagram can calcu...

We simulate and analyze pilot decision making in one-on-one air combat using an influence diagram. Unlike most of the existing approaches, an influence diagram graphically describes the factors of a decision process and explicitly handles the decision maker’s preferences under conditions of uncertainty. In the pilot decision model, the possible combat situations related to each maneuver alterna...

We present an anytime algorithm which computes policies for decision problems represented as multi-stage influence diagrams. Our algorithm constructs policies incrementally, starting from a policy which makes no use of the available information. The incremental process constructs policies which includes more of the information available to the decision maker at each step. While the process conv...

We describe preliminary research on how to monitor a user’s emotions and level of engagement during the interaction with educational games. We illustrate how the user’s emotional state can be assessed through a probabilistic model that takes into account the context of the interaction, the user’s personality and a variety of user’s bodily expressions that are known to be directly influenced by ...

In this talk I comment on some theoretical expectations for exotic light meson spectroscopy below 2 GeV and their potential interest for a future energy upgrade of DAFNE. MATTERS OF PRINCIPLE The colours we perceive around us vary almost continuously between different tones. Only careful scrutiny of the light emitted by pure substances through diffraction gratings at the end of the 19th century...