Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater acc...

A series of monte carlo studies were performed to as­ sess the extent to which different inference procedures robustly output reasonable belief values in the context of increasing levels of judgmental imprecision. It was found that, when com­ pared to an equal-weights linear model, the Bayesian procedures are more likely to deduce strong support for a hypothesis. But, the Bayesian procedures ar...

For complex group decision tasks which can be described in terms of establishing the truth value of conjunctive (and) or disjunctive (or) composite propositions, the advantage for group judgmental accuracy of disaggregating the decision task into separate individual evaluations of the truth value of each component atomic proposition in the composite is investigated. For true propositions it is ...

Colecta-PALM is a Web-based application delivered on PDAs that provides behavioral messaging based on risk assessment responses for HIV patients. Usability testing was undertaken with 15 people living with HIV.AIDS (PWLHA) in two clinics in Lima. Sixty percent (9/15) were somewhat/very satisfied with Colecta-PALM, with usefulness rated 3.7/5. Users found the tool innovative, interesting, easy t...

Though the psychological literature is replete with information about the perception of faces presented at a full-frontal view, we know very little about how faces are perceived-and impressions formed-when viewed from other angles. We tested impressions of faces at full-frontal, three-quarter, and profile views. Judgments of personality (aggressiveness, competence, dominance, likeability, and t...

activation have presented prime words in contexts where the meaning of each word was invariant (e.g., word puzzles). In this research, we used words in contexts that supported either literal or figurative meanings, and found that only the con text-appropriate meanings had subsequent priming effects on person-perception judgments. In Experiment 1 , participants read the word "fire" in one of thr...

Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on innovative activity. While overoptimism ...

When people rapidly judge the truth of claims presented with or without related but nonprobative photos, the photos tend to inflate the subjective truth of those claims--a "truthiness" effect (Newman et al., 2012). For example, people more often judged the claim "Macadamia nuts are in the same evolutionary family as peaches" to be true when the claim appeared with a photo of a bowl of macadamia...

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