Long memory or structural breaks: Can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current oat? Christopher F. Baum Boston College Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 USA John T. Barkoulas Louisiana Tech University Ruston, LA 71272 USA Mustafa Caglayan Koç University Istanbul, Turkey This paper considers two potential rationales for the apparent absence of mean reversion in real exchange rate...

Optimal control models for limit order trading often assume that the underlying asset price is a Brownian motion since they deal with relatively short time scales. The resulting optimal bid and ask limit order prices tend to track the underlying price as one might expect. This is indeed the case with the model of Avellaneda and Stoikov (2008), which has been studied extensively. We consider her...

Recent studies indicating long term dependence in stock market indices have found a mean reversion process. However, studies using rescaled range (R/S) analysis have not found evidence of a mean reversion or ergodic process. Instead, evidence from these studies indicate either long term persistence in a nonperiodic cycle or short run Markovian dependence with no long term persistence. The purpo...

Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal shortand long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis. Threshold cointegration accounts for the possibility that this mean reversion is active only conditional on ce...

The paper compares three portfolio optimization models. Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a short-horizon volatility model. The relevant time horizon is the sampling interval. MPT is myopic and implies that investors are not concerned with long-term variance or mean-reversion. Intertemporal portfolio choice is a multiple period model that revises portfolios continuously in response to relevant s...

When movements are perturbed in adaptation tasks, humans and other animals show incomplete compensation, tolerating small but sustained residual errors that persist despite repeated trials. State-space models explain this residual asymptotic error as interplay between learning from error and reversion to baseline, a form of forgetting. Previous work using zero-error-clamp trials has shown that ...

Researchers investigating the possibility of mean reversion in stock prices with statistics based on multiyear returns have noted difficulties in drawing inferences from these statistics because the approximating asymptotic distributions perform poorly. We develop an alternative asymptotic distribution theory for statistics involving multiyear returns. These distributions diPier markedly from t...

Despite integration of financial and goods markets, borders still impose considerable friction on the flow of goods. This paper shows that a decline in output shock variance might increase the time of mean reversion despite declining border frictions. We estimate these frictions and determinants of mean reversion using a novel measure of the real exchange rate for productive capabilities. Our e...