A number of cross-country comparisons do not find a robust negative relationship between government size and economic growth. In part this may reflect the prediction in economic theory that a negative relationship should exist primarily for rich countries with large public sectors. In this paper an econometric panel study is conducted on a sample of rich countries covering the 1970–95 period. E...

Starting out from a classical perspective on income distribution and growth, the paper reconsiders this issue in the framework of a basic (deterministic) Schumpeterian model with ongoing technical change. On a long-run equilibrium path of this economy, the forces of technological innovation and diffusion balance such that always various techniques of different efficiencies coexist. A consequenc...

This paper builds a model of growth through industrialization, where machines replace workers in a growing number of tasks. This enables the economy to experience long-run growth, as machines become servants of humans, and as their number grows unboundedly. The mechanism that drives growth is feedback between industrialization and wages. High wages provide incentives to use machines, while indu...

In the growth literature, evidence on convergence of per capita incomes is mixed. In the development literature, health and education indicators are often used to measure countries’ development progress. This study examines whether average stocks of health and education are converging across countries and calculates the speed of their convergence using data from 84 countries for 1970–90. A thre...

In 1998-2002, Argentina experienced what the government described as a “great depression.” Using the “Great Depressions” methodology developed by Cole and Ohanian (1999) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002), we find that the primary determinants of both the boom in Argentina in the 1990s and the subsequent depression were changes in productivity, rather than changes in factor inputs. The timing of eve...

A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest – the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies that the natural rate of interest varies over time and depends on the trend growth rate of output. In this paper we apply the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, potential ou...

It has been shown that higher capital taxes can have a growth-enhancing effect when combined with a revenue-compensating cut in wage taxes (Uhlig and Yanagawa 1996; European Economic Review 40, 1521–1540) or with an expansion in productivity-increasing public services (Rivas 2003; European Economic Review 47, 477–503). The present paper demonstrates that these results critically hinge on the ex...

The paper develops an economic–political model to explain why the convergence hypothesis fails even though good economic policies seem to be a sufficient condition for strong economic growth (Sachs, J., Warner, A., 1995a. Economic convergence and economic policies. NBER Working Paper No. 5039. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.). The model has three variables: growth, policy, ...

It has been shown, for non-Communist developed and developing countries, that earlier development of agriculture, a dense population, and a state-level polity is associated with a higher income and more rapid economic growth in the late 20 Century. We investigate whether this was also the case for countries under Communism and for the same countries in transition to a market economy. Our findin...

The sources of economic growth and development have been puzzling economists from the modern dawn of the profession. While the Solow-Swan neo-classical model dominated research on growth in the 1960s and 1970s, the 1980s saw the emergence of growth theories that disputed, largely on theoretical grounds, the Solow-Swan assumptions and conclusions. In this paper, we do not examine the determinant...