The article examines whether commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of equity returns. Alongside a long-only equally-weighted portfolio of commodity futures, we employ as an alternative commodity risk factor a term structure portfolio that captures the propensity of commodity futures markets to be backwardated or contangoed. Equity-sorted portfolios with greater sensitivities to the two ...

We conduct an event analysis on OPEC quota announcements to determine their impact on the stock returns in the oil industry. We find that announcements to reduce the quota are followed by positive excess returns over pre-announcement levels, announcements of no action are met with negative excess returns and announcements to increase the quota have no significant impact on stock market returns....

Any discussion on exchange rate movements and forecasting should include explanatory variables from both the current account and the capital account of the balance of payments. In this paper, we include such factors to forecast the value of the Indian rupee vis a vis the US Dollar. Further, factors reflecting political instability and lack of mechanism for enforcement of contracts that can affe...

We use high-frequency intra-day realized volatility to evaluate the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of crude oil daily spot returns. Our objective is to evaluate the predictive ability of time-invariant and Markov switching GARCH models over different horizons. Using Carasco, Hu and Ploberger (2014) test for regime switching in the mean and variance of the ...

Robust Estimation in Nonlinear Modeling of Volatility Transmission in Stock Market S.B. Ebrahimi * Department of Industrial Engineering, K.N.Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran * Email: [email protected] (Received: 12 September 2015; Revised: 8 May 2016; Accepted: 24 June 2016) Volatility transmission means the connection between different markets in a way that volatility can be tr...

We describe a general method for analyzing a nonstationary stochastic process X(t) which, unlike many of the previous analysis methods, does not require X(t) to have any scaling feature. The method is used to study the fluctuations in the daily price of oil. It is shown that the returns time series, y(t)=ln[X(t+1)X(t)] , is a stationary and Markov process, characterized by a Markov time scale t...

This article investigates whether time variation in the returns' co-movement of oil and Baltic Dirty Tanker Index can be linked to market uncertainty. We measure uncertainty using a battery different proxies considering both parametric non-parametric methods study its role from statistical economic perspectives. Using regression framework combined with regime switching analysis, we show that pr...

This study points to analyze the determinants of stock return revelation in oil and gas mining division companies recorded on Indonesia Stock Trade-in 2019-2021 amid Covid 19 emergency. The think about utilized Eviews Program as information preparing irregular impact relapse show was chosen look at relationship between outside inside markers autonomous factors counting Current Ratio (CR), debt ...