This paper considers dynamic asset allocation in a mean versus downside-risk framework. We derive closed-form solutions for the optimal portfolio weights when returns are lognormally distributed. Moreover, we study the impact of skewed and fat-tailed return distributions. We nd that the optimal fraction invested in stocks is V-shaped: at low and high levels of wealth the investor increases the ...

We study the optimal investment and consumption problem of a CRRA investor when the drift and volatility of the stock are driven by a correlated factor. The myopic and non-myopic components of the optimal portfolio process are characterized in terms of the market price of traded and non-traded risk of the minimax martingale measure. We find that the optimal policies depend crucially on the natu...

We apply the concept of cost efficient claims to Lévy market models and find in an application to German stock prizes considerable potential savings the optimal payoffs provide. The magnitude of savings is related to the strength of the market trend. It is shown that the cost-efficient options also exhibit an improved behaviour concerning hedging errors. In the second part we introduce addition...

Evidence indicates that people fear change and the unknown. We model this behavior as familiarity bias in which individuals focus on adverse scenarios in evaluating defections from the status quo. The model explains portfolio underdiversification, home and local biases. More importantly, equilibrium stock prices reflect an unfamiliarity premium. In an international setting, our model predicts t...

This paper studies the impact of labor ‡exibility on optimal life-cycle portfolio decisions, particularly the ability to change industries or …rms within industries. The model addresses two frequently observed portfolio behaviors that are seemingly inconsistent with rational portfolio choice. The …rst is the tendency of workers and entrepreneurs to hold their company’s stock. The second is the ...

Despite the voluminous empirical research on the potential predictability of stock returns, much less attention has been paid to the predictability of bear and bull stock markets. In this study, the aim is to predict U.S. bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models. Based on the analysis of the monthly U.S. data set, bear and bull markets are predictable in and out of sam...

This paper proposes an approach to the intraday analysis of diversified world stock accumulation indices. The growth optimal portfolio (GOP) is used as reference unit or benchmark in a continuous financial market model. Diversified portfolios, covering the world stock market, are constructed and shown to approximate the GOP, providing the basis for a range of financial applications. The normali...

Stock portfolio selection is a classic problem in finance, and it involves deciding how to allocate an institution’s or an individual’s wealth to a number of stocks, with certain investment objectives (return and risk). In this paper, we adopt the classical Markowitz mean-variance model and consider an additional common realistic constraint, namely, the cardinality constraint. Thus, stock portf...

We derive a closed-form optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean-reversion speeds. The optimal strategy is characterized by two principles: 1) aim in front of the target and 2) trade partially towards the current aim. Specifically, the optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio an...