Macroeconomic Volatilities and the Labor Market: First Results from the Euro Experiment This paper analyzes the effects of different labor market institutions on inflation and output volatility. The eurozone offers an unprecedented experiment for this exercise: since 1999, no national monetary policies have been implemented that could account for volatility differences across member states, but...

We study how the 2007-2009 crisis has changed the impact of financial integration on the transmission of international business cycles, focusing on a sample of 20 developed countries between 1978 and 2009. We use a differences-in-differences strategy for identification and investigate the effect of bilateral financial linkages on the co-movement of output, investment, and consumption before and...

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report “up” and “down”. This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey responses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be ...

In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit. In this paper we develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model in which unsecured firm credit arises from self-enforcing borrowing co...

The paper examines government spending that is financed by taxes that distort output and by the inflation tax. High inflation and low output are the consequence of fiscal ambitions that exceed the current capacity of the economy to support. Supply-side growth alleviates this tension, allowing lower inflation, lower tax distortions, and higher output. In the presence of commitment problems, reso...

This paper studies some effects of real time information for the implementation of monetary policy. We consider an economy in which several sources of uncertainty, such as measurement errors and imperfectly observable states, do not allow the policy maker to identify the true state of the economy. Optimal policy thus requires the policy maker to jointly solve a filtering and an optimization pro...

We study the sustainability of public debt in a closed production economy where a benevolent government chooses fiscal policies, including haircuts on its outstanding debt, in a discretionary manner. Government bonds are held by domestic agents to smooth consumption over time and because they provide collateral and liquidity services. We characterize a recursive equilibrium where public debt am...

We estimate a semi-parametric model of health production process using a two-stage approach for OECD countries. By regressing data envelopment analysis output efficiency scores on non-discretionary variables, both using Tobit analysis and a single and double bootstrap procedure, we show that inefficiency is strongly related to GDP per head, the education level, and health behaviour such as obes...

A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest – the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies that the natural rate of interest varies over time and depends on the trend growth rate of output. In this paper we apply the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, potential ou...

This article analyzes direct and indirect effects of foreign ownership on productivity in the Turkish manufacturing plants between 1990 and 1996. First, based on Olley-Pakes production function estimates, foreign affiliates are shown to be more productive than local plants. Using sectoral output shares of foreign affiliates and 1990 input-output matrix to identify linkages across plants, regres...