Traditionally, financial crisis EarlyWarning Systems (EWSs) have relied onmacroeconomic leading indicatorswhen forecasting the occurrence of such events. This paper extends such discrete-choice EWSs by taking the persistence of the crisis phenomenon into account. The dynamic logit EWS is estimated using an exact maximum likelihood estimation method in both a country-by-country and a panel frame...

One of the main criticisms to game theory concerns the assumption of full rationality. Logit dynamics is a decentralized algorithm in which a level of irrationality (a.k.a. “noise”) is introduced in players’ behavior. In this context, the solution concept of interest becomes the logit equilibrium, as opposed to Nash equilibria. Logit equilibria are distributions over strategy profiles that poss...

hepatitis b infection is one of the health problems. a cross-sectional study was performed to determine the effective factors on hbsag in systan and blochestan province, iran. in this study sample of 1150 people aged 2-69 year were and interviewed using cluster sampling the following variables using x2 , fisher and cochran showed a significant relation with hbsag; xi, economical status (p < 0.0...

How has poverty changed during the 1997-99 period, when the Peruvian economic performance deteriorated seriously under the negative impact of the international financial crisis? The answer to this question has traditionally relied on cross-section comparisons of poverty indicators. In this paper we extend the analysis first by examining the robustness of these kind of comparisons by considering...

While all kinds of mixed data—from personal data, over panel and scientific data, to public and commercial data—are collected and stored, building probabilistic graphical models for these hybrid domains becomes more difficult. Users spend significant amounts of time in identifying the parametric form of the random variables (Gaussian, Poisson, Logit, etc.) involved and learning the mixed models...

What happens to the demand of the print version if a magazine launches a website? This question is empirically analyzed for the German women's magazine market, a particularly relevant segment of the German magazine market. Static and dynamic nested logit–type demand models are estimated on quarterly panel data covering the period 1996 to 2001. Main findings are that website provision does not h...

Women represent the majority of informal sector workers in developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa where adolescent pregnancy rates are high. Little empirical evidence exists concerning the relationship between teen fertility and the likelihood that a woman will be employed in the informal sector. Using a panel survey in Madagascar designed to capture the transition from adolesce...

OBJECTIVES To explain the use of interaction terms in nonlinear models. STUDY DESIGN We discuss the motivation for including interaction terms in multivariate analyses. We then explain how the straightforward interpretation of interaction terms in linear models changes in nonlinear models, using graphs and equations. We extend the basic results from logit and probit to difference-in-differenc...

This study aims to estimate the recreational use values of Great Lakes beaches using a two-level nested logit Random Utility Model. The choice set contains all 594 public Great Lakes beaches in Michigan. Beach sites located in the same Great Lakes water body are arranged into a nest. The trip data were obtained from a 2006 online survey using a web-panel of Michigan adults accessed through Surv...