Risk is mitigated in the course of reliable prediction. A probabilistic model is proposed to predict the risk effects on time and cost of construction projects. Project managers and consultants can use the model in estimating project cost and duration based on historic data. Statistical regression models and sample tests are developed using real data of 140 projects. The research objective is t...

Revealed Preference methods offer a nonparametric test for whether a set of observations on a consumer can be rationalized by a utility function. If a consumer is inconsistent with the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference, having an idea of how severe this violation of utility maximization is can be useful. One widely used measure is the Afriat efficiency index. We propose a new measure bas...

This paper considers the problem of comparing two processes with panel data. A nonparametric test is proposed for detecting a monotone change in the link between the two process distributions. The test statistic is of CUSUM type, based on the empirical distribution functions. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic is derived and its finite sample property is examined by bootstrap...

This paper introduces a new nonparametric test to identify jump arrival times in high frequency financial time series data. The asymptotic distribution of the test is derived. We demonstrate that the test is robust for different specifications of price processes and the presence of the microstructure noise. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted which shows that the test has good size and power....

In this paper, we discuss how to approximate the conditional expectation of a random variable Y given a random variable X, i.e. E(Y|X). We propose and compare two different non parametric methodologies to approximate E(Y|X). The first approach (namely the OLP method) is based on a suitable approximation of the σ-algebra generated by X. A second procedure is based on the well known kernel non-pa...

multi-environment trials play a significant role in selecting the best cultivars to be used at different locations. the objective of this study was to identify grain and forage yields stability of grass pea advanced lines across different locations. the 14 advanced lines of grass pea, developed by the international center for agricultural research in dry areas (icarda), were tested at three dif...

This paper addresses the problem of reconstructing partially observed stochastic processes. The L convergence of the filtering and smoothing densities in state space models is studied, when the transition and emission densities are estimated using non parametric kernel estimates. An application to real data is proposed, in which a wave time series is forecasted given a wind time series.

In this paper, we study the decidability of five problems on a class of extended Petri nets. The study of this class of extended Petri nets is motivated by the problem of parametric verification of multiple copies of processes that can communicate with a partially non-blocking rendez-vous. This kind of communications occurs in abstractions of multi-threaded JAVA programs.

We investigate Bayesian non-parametric inference for the Λ-measure of Λ-coalescent processes parametrised by probability measures on the unit interval and provide an implementable, provably consistent MCMC inference algorithm. We give verifiable criteria on the prior for posterior consistency when observations form a time series, and prove that any non-trivial prior is inconsistent when all obs...