This paper examines the use of survey-based measures in volatility forecasting. We argue that an aggregate forecast built up from individual forecasts should be sum expected volatilities and dispersion mean return forecasts. data coming a repeated survey to capture expectations returns investors, produce Our are consistent quantitatively similar with based on GARCH implied models. result is rob...

This paper investigates the empirical relation between consumer and expert expectations about macroeconomic conditions in Germany. Using data from the EU Consumer Con…dence Survey and the ZEW business expectations, I estimate static models and error-correction models explaining consumer expectations as functions of expert expectations, consumer retrospections, and lagged consumer expectations. ...

This paper focusses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focusses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other mod...

This paper focusses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focusses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other mod...