This paper investigates the predictions of a simple optimizing model of nominal price rigidity for the dynamics of inflation. Taking as given the paths of nominal labor compensation and labor productivity to approximate the evolution of marginal costs, I determine the path of prices predicted by the solution of the firms’ optimal pricing problem. Model parameters are chosen to maximize the fit ...

This paper investigates the effects of media coverage and macroeconomic conditions on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depend...

This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the “non–accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy–to–use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the possibility of a non–vertical Phillips curve (e.g. in times of low inflation), the occurrence of shocks an...

I study the effects of a lack of common knowledge on nominal adjustment in a dynamic price-setting game with incomplete information. In particular, I show how the speed of price adjustments following a nominal or real shock depends on the information structure among pricesetters. The provision of public information leads to a reduction of higher-order uncertainty, and hence to more rapid price ...

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model set up but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a...

It is well known that increasing returns to scale and firms’ market power are two potential sources of sunspot expectations in Neoclassical models. In this paper we show that both the degree of returns to scale and market power can have fundamentally different implications for self-fulfilling expectations in New Keynesian models depending on the nature of price rigidity. As a result, the design...

Evidence of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) representations is found in two, out of three, time series of different measures of annual inflation in Colombia during this decade for monthly data. The STAR-type nonlinearities are asymmetric for inflation computed as the variation of CPI while for (a measure of ) core inflation are symmetric. Thus, LSTAR and ESTAR models were, respectively,...

This paper compares the Calvo model with the Rotemberg model in a fully nonlinear dynamic new Keynesian framework with an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Although the two models are equivalent to a first-order approximation, they generate very different results regarding the policy functions and the government spending multiplier based on nonlinear solutio...

A growing empirical and theoretical literature argues in favor of specifying monetary policy in the form of Taylor-type interest rate feedback rules. That is, rules whereby the nominal interest rate is set as an increasing function of inflation with a slope greater than one around an intended inflation target. This paper shows that because of the zero bound on nominal interest rates, such rules...

this study has investigated the long-run and short-run effects of relative productivity on real exchange rate using annual time series data of iran and its major trade partners over the period 1980-2005. to analyze such effect which refers to the balassa-samuelson effect, this research uses auto-regressive distributed lags (ardl) method, to deal with dynamics of the relationship between product...