Phylodynamic techniques combine epidemiological and genetic information to analyze the evolutionary and spatiotemporal dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens, such as influenza A or human immunodeficiency viruses. We introduce 'allele dynamics plots' (AD plots) as a method for visualizing the evolutionary dynamics of a gene in a population. Using AD plots, we propose how to identify the alleles...

Punctuated antigenic change is believed to be a key element in the evolution of influenza A; clusters of antigenically similar strains predominate worldwide for several years until an antigenically distant mutant emerges and instigates a selective sweep. It is thought that a region of East-Southeast Asia with year-round transmission acts as a source of antigenic diversity for influenza A and se...

Family medicine is a major source of information about health problems and their variation. For most illnesses the general practitioner is the first point of contact in the health care system and he looks after a population whose age and sex composition is known. He is therefore in an ideal position to conduct inquiries about seasonal variations of diseases. There are diseases where possible pa...

Tropical dry forests represent nearly half the tropical forests in the world and are the ecosystems registering the greatest deterioration from the anthropogenic exploitation of the land. This paper presents a review on the dynamics of tropical dry forests regeneration and the main abiotic factors influencing this regeneration, such as seasonal nature, soil fertility and humidity, and natural a...

We propose a deterministic compartmental model for cholera dynamics in periodic environments. The model incorporates seasonal variation into a general formulation for the incidence (or, force of infection) and the pathogen concentration. The basic reproduction number of the periodic model is derived, based on which a careful analysis is conducted on the epidemic and endemic dynamics of cholera....

Unprecedented global surveillance of viruses will result in massive sequence data sets that require new statistical methods. These data sets press the limits of Bayesian phylogenetics as the high-dimensional parameters that comprise a phylogenetic tree increase the already sizable computational burden of these techniques. This burden often results in partitioning the data set, for example, by g...

Background Seasonal influenza epidemics occur frequently. Rapid characterization of seasonal dynamics and forecasting of epidemic peaks and final sizes could help support real-time decision-making related to vaccination and other control measures. Real-time forecasting remains challenging. Methods We used the previously described "incidence decay with exponential adjustment" (IDEA) model, a 2...

From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin). We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceanographic regime, namely changes in frequency and inten...

SAD is a state of depression induced by a lack of sufficient sunlight that occurs at high latitudes during the fall and winter. SAD causes people to be risk-adverse. Granting agencies of high latitude countries should time high-risk research competitions so they do not coincide with the SAD months.