We use generalized method of moments to estimate a rational expectations aggregate demand/aggregate supply macroeconomic model for five European economies and the United States. Our aim is to examine whether supply or demand shocks have predominated in these economies during the post-war era, and whether shocks of either type have been primarily temporary or permanent in nature. The estimation ...

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of monetary union membership will depend on the extent to which price and output shocks are correlated acr...

Vector autoregressive models are often used in Macroeconomics to draw conclusions about the effects of policy innovations. However, those results depend on the researcher’s priors about the particular ordering of the variables. As an alternative, this paper presents a very simple rule based on the maximum entropy principle that can be used to find the “most likely” ordering. The proposal is ill...

A trivariate vector autoregression time series process, based on a present-value land price model, is used to decompose Iowa farmland prices into fundamental and non-fundamental components. A recent study, by Falk and Lee (1998), found that non-fundamental shocks are an important source of volatility in farmland prices and it was interpreted that these price movements were due to fads not specu...

This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U.S. monetary policy on the dollar/yen exchange rate, using structural Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods. We compare our estimates of the impulse responses with those based on levels Vector Autoregression. We also compare results from short run and long run restrictions imposed on the structural VECM. We find evidence of overshooting b...

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of structural oil shocks in four of the top oil-consuming Asian economies, using a VAR model. We identify three different structural oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. The main results suggest that economic activity and prices respond very dif...

We develop a multi-sector sticky-price DSGE model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages induce across-sector pricing complementarities that contribute to a slow response of prices to aggregate shocks. In turn, labor-market segmentation at the sectoral level induces within-sector pricing substitutability,...

We study the interrelationship between capital °ows, returns, dividend yields and world interest rates in 20 emerging markets. We estimate a vector autoregression with these variables to measure the degree to which lower interest rates contribute to increased capital °ows and shocks in °ows a®ect the cost of capital among other dynamic relations. We precede the VAR analysis by a detailed examin...

The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables...

background and aims: the novel approaches in influenza vaccination have targeted more conserved viral proteins such as nucleoprotein (np) to provide cross protection against all serotypes of influenza a viruses. influenza specific cytotoxic t lymphocytes (ctl) are able to lyse influenza-infected cells by recognition of np, the major target molecule in virus for ctl responses. on the other hand,...