A challenge for the efficient operation of power systems and wind farms is the occurrence of wind power ramps, which are sudden large changes in the power output from a wind farm. This paper considers the probabilistic forecasting of a ramp event, defined as exceedance beyond a specified threshold. We directly model the exceedance probability using autoregressive logit models fitted to the chan...

A most commonly identified exogenous factor that significantly affects traffic crash injury severity sustained is the collision type variable. Most studies consider collision type only as an explanatory variable in modeling injury. However, it is possible that each collision type has a fundamentally distinct effect on injury severity sustained in the crash. In this paper, we examine the hypothe...

Working papers are in draft form. This working paper is distributed for purposes of comment and discussion only. It may not be reproduced without permission of the copyright holder. Copies of working papers are available from the author. Abstract Previous research suggests that the random coefficients logit is a highly flexible model that overcomes the problems of the homogeneous logit by allow...

We estimate random-parameter logit models of anglers' choice of fishing site. The models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed. The models do not exhibit the restrictive "independence from irrelevant alternatives property" of logit and can represent any substitution pattern. Estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation ...

Health and safety are important factors in today’s life. Most of studies show that consuming the chicken that has anti biotic caused different diseases like digestive vessel cancer. Attention to controlled use of antibiotics can play a key role in society health which considered in the production of green chicken. Planning for increasing the production of mentioned chicken needs the investigati...

Fires in forest areas are considered an important threat to the Andean Region and the Amazon rainforest. In Colombia, fire is used to expand the agricultural frontier (including illicit crops) which results in deforestation. Given the importance of avoiding deforestation and to control coca expansion, this paper aims to: 1) understand the relationship between fires and deforestation, coca and d...

distribution and diversity of income in rural regions according to the characteristics of households and in the framework of sustainable livelihood must be investigated. in this study, in order to investigate the status of income distribution and diversity and its impact on the economy of rural households in alamout region multinomial logit model has been used. the required dates are related to...

The paper deals with the competitive effects of price guarantees in a spatial duopoly where consumers can search for lower prices but have to incur hassle costs if they want to claim a price guarantee. It is shown that symmetric equilibria with and without price guarantees exist but price guarantees will have no effect on prices if search costs are low, hassle costs are high and the number of u...

In this paper we develop a two-step survival time approach – a discrete logit model with survival time dummies – that allows for time-varying explanatory variables and interval censored data. Our empirical analysis reveals that the twostep approach outperforms the benchmark logit model with respect to out-ofsample prediction accuracy. Survival time, however, does not play an important role. The...