The identification of reduced-form VAR model had been the subject of numerous debates in the literature. Different sets of identifying assumptions can lead to very different conclusions in the policy debate. This paper proposes a theoretical consistent identification strategy using restrictions implied by a DSGE model. Monte Carlo simulations suggest the proposed identification strategy is succ...

This paper proposes differentiability properties for positively homogeneous risk measures which ensure that the gradient can be applied for reasonable risk capital allocation on non-trivial portfolios. It is shown that these properties are fulfilled for a wide class of coherent risk measures based on the mean and the one-sided moments of a risky payoff. In contrast to quantile-based risk measur...

We find that covariance matrix forecasts for an international interest rate portfolio generated by a model that incorporates interest-rate level volatility effects perform best with respect to statistical loss functions. However, within a value-at-risk (VaR) framework, the relative performance of the covariance matrix forecasts depends greatly on the VaR distributional assumption. Simple foreca...

exchange rate has the fundamental role as one of the economy key variables in determining the domestic price. so it is important to know how is the empirical relationship between the exchange rate and domestic prices and the factors influencing this relationship. the main objective of this study is to determine the effect of vehichel imports share on the exchange rate pass – through on domestic...

this study has investigated the long-run and short-run effects of relative productivity on real exchange rate using annual time series data of iran and its major trade partners over the period 1980-2005. to analyze such effect which refers to the balassa-samuelson effect, this research uses auto-regressive distributed lags (ardl) method, to deal with dynamics of the relationship between product...

make or buy decision is one of the main areas of decision making for managers. transaction cost economics (tce), as an influential economic approach to the theory of the firm, tries to put forward a theoretical framework for this important decision. from tce perspective, the greater the asset specificity, the more the behavioral uncertainty and the more the transaction frequency, the more will ...

in this article, the effectiveness of eight different technical indexes including simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential moving average, relative strength, commodity channel, stochastic, money flow and demand are examined by comparison between indexes returns with buy and hold returns. the results shows the return of buy and hold strategy is more than technical indexes in t...

The authors examine the link between consumption and disaggregate wealth in Canada. They use a vector-error-correction model in which permanent and transitory shocks are identified using the restrictions implied by cointegration proposed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995). This procedure allows the authors to identify the reaction of consumption to both ty...

This paper evaluates the interacted effects of the fiscal and monetary policies on the nominal and real macro-variables of the Iranian economy. Our analysis is thus based on the optimal control theory by which the optimal path of the control variables including monetary and fiscal tools are determined over the period 1963-2006. We also use a macro-econometric model in form of a simultaneous equ...

abstract the aim of this study was to selecting the suitable model for forecast land, production and price of sugar beet in iran. for this purpose, models applied to forecast are arima, single and double exponential smoothing, harmonic, artificial neural network and arch for period 1993-2008. results of durbin-watson tests, land, production and price of sugar beet series were found non stochast...