A set of rigorous diagnostic techniques is used to evaluate the forecasting performance of five multivariate time-series models for the U.S. cattle sector. The root-meansquared-error criterion along with an evaluation of the rankings of forecast errors reveals that the Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and the unrestricted VAR (UVAR) models generate forecasts which are superior to both a re...

In this paper, we present a generalization to nonlinear models of the four dimensional variational dual method, the 4D-PSAS algorithm. The idea of 4DPSAS (Physical Space Analysis System) is to perform the minimization in the space of the observations, rather than in the model space as in the primal 4D-VAR scheme. Despite the formal equivalence between 4D-VAR and 4D-PSAS in a linear situation (b...

This paper presents a dynamic model of optimal bank capital in which the bank optimizes over costs associated with failure, holding capital, and flows of external capital. The solution to the infinite-horizon optimization problem is related to period-by-period value-at-risk (var) in which the optimal probability of failure is endogenously determined. Over a cycle, var is positively correlated w...

This study examines the psychometric properties of the Working Alliance Inventory-Short (WAI-S) adaptation to Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) therapies (WAI-VAR). The relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) with VR and AR and clinically significant change (CSC) is also explored. Seventy-five patients took part in this study (74.7% women, M age = 34.41). Fear of flying...

VALUE-AT-RISK Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures the worst expected loss under normal market conditions over a specific time interval at a given confidence level. As one of our references states: “VaR answers the question: how much can I lose with x% probability over a pre-set horizon” (J.P. Morgan, RiskMetrics–Technical Document). Another way of expressing this is that VaR is the lowest quantile of ...

Bi r th weight is in large extent influenced by gestational age. In addi tion genetic and envi ronmental factors determine intrauter ine growth and bi r th weight. The contr ibutions of these factors may be influenced by maternal smoking dur ing pregnancy. We examined bi r th weight and maternal smoking in a sample of 2930 twin pai rs from the Nether lands Twin Register using structural equatio...

A central problem ill empirical macroeconomics is to determine when and how much the exchange rate is misaligned. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of’ the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector auto regression (VAR) model. By imposing long—run restrictions on a VAR model for Iran, lour structural shocks are identified: nominal demand, real demand, supply and oi...

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Four species of Pinus subsection Australes occur in the Caribbean Basin: P. caribaea, P. cubensis, P. maestrensis and P. occidentalis. This study analyses the phylogeography of these species to assess possible colonization events from Central America to the islands and subsequent population expansions during glacial periods driven by both drier climate and larger emerged lan...

The World Jurist Association’s Conference on International Arbitration and ADR – the Impact on the Rule of Law was held April 5 – 7, 2011 in Grand Baie, Mauritius. This Conference brought together 150 distinguished delegates and speakers from 20 countries, representing every region of the world. Our Host Committee was chaired by Honorable YKJ Yeung Sik Yuen, GOSK, Chief Justice of the Supreme C...

Japanese Angelica Root prepared from Angelica acutiloba var. acutiloba and A. acutiloba var. sugiyamae, known in Japan as “Toki” and “Hokkai Toki”, is an important crude drug used in Kampo medicine (traditional Japanese medicine). However, since these Angelica varieties have recently outcrossed with each other, it is unclear whether Japanese Angelica Root sold for use in Kampo medicine is a pur...