This paper demonstrates that the ability of the yield spread to predict output fluctuations is contingent on the monetary authority’s reaction function. In particular, expectations of monetary policy actions are crucial for the spread to predict output conditional on the short-rate. Furthermore, numerical experiments suggest that the post-1979 decrease in the yield spread’s predictive power is ...

We used a molecular dynamics simulation with the modified Brenner reactive empirical bond order potential to investigate the erosion of a graphite surface due to the incidence of hydrogen, deuterium, and tritium atoms. Incident particles cause pressure on the graphite surface, and the chemical bond between graphene layers then generates heat to erode the graphite surface. We evaluated the speed...