By introducing repo markets we understand how agents need to borrow issued securities before shorting them: (re)-hypothecation is at the heart of shorting. Non-negative amounts of securities in the box of an agent (amounts borrowed or owned but not lent on) can be sold, and recursive use of securities as collateral allows agents to leverage their positions. A binding box constraint induces a li...

This paper presents a regime-switching model of the yield curve with two states. One is a normal state, the other is a zero-bound state that represents the case when the monetary policy target rate is at its zero lower bound for a prolonged period. The model delivers estimates of the time-varying probability of exiting the zero-bound state, and it outperforms standard threeand four-factor term ...

This paper investigates whether the degree of predictability can be explained by existing asset pricing models, and provides two theoretical upper bounds on the R-square of the regression of stock returns on predictors for given classes of models of interest. Empirically, we find that the predictive R-square is significantly larger than the upper bounds permitted by well known asset pricing mod...

The average level and cross-sectional variability of fund alphas are estimated from a large sample of mutual funds. This information is incorporated, along with the usual regression estimate of alpha, in a (roughly) precision-weighted average measure of individual fund performance. Substantial ‘‘learning across funds’’ is documented, with significant effects on investment decisions. In a Bayesi...

This paper examines the conditions required to guarantee positive prices in the CAPM. Positive prices imply an upper bound on the equity premium. This upper bound depends on the degree of diversity of firms’ fundamentals, and it is independent of investors’ preferences. In economies with realistically diverse assets the only positive-price CAPM equilibrium theoretically possible is a degenerate...

This paper analyses the impact of a move from fractional to decimal pricing in the UK Long Gilt futures market. The reduced tick size following decimalisation leads to an increase in price clustering. The bid-ask spread, measured in ticks, increases following the tick size reduction. However, due to a reduced tick value, the monetary value of the spread declines. There is a substantial reductio...

The paper develops a quality adjusted professional sports franchise price index for North America based on a repeat sale method. This index reflects trends in the general price of sports franchises holding local market, facility, and team characteristics constant. The price index exhibits considerable volatility but no upward trend over time, unlike previous quality adjusted price indexes based...

Informed Trading and the Pricing of Good and Bad Private Information in the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns We decompose PIN, the Probability of Informed Trading, into components that capture informed trading on good news (PIN G) and on bad news (PIN B), and provide new evidence that PIN and its components capture informed trading around quarterly earnings announcements. Our principal r...

I develop an analytical general-equilibrium model to explain economic sources of businesscycle pattern of aggregate stock market returns. With concave production functions and capital accumulation, a technology shock has a pro-cyclical direct effect and a counter-cyclical indirect effect on expected returns. The indirect effect, reflecting the “feedback” effect of consumers’ behavior on asset r...

We analyze the pricing of a productive asset in a class of dynamic exchange economies with heterogeneous, infinitely–lived agents, and self–enforcing intertemporal trades. Individual incomes fluctuate and are correlated; preferences, dividends and aggregate income are fixed. Almost all economies in this class have a unique stationary Markovian equilibrium with fluctuations in asset prices. As t...