This Paper describes a procedure for constructing theory restricted prior distributions for BVAR models. The Bayes Factor, which is obtained without any additional computational effort, can be used to assess the plausibility of the restrictions imposed on the VAR parameter vector by competing DSGE models. In other words, it is possible to rank the amount of abstraction implied by each DSGE mode...

A core aspect of science is using data to assess the degree to which data provide evidence for competing claims, hypotheses, or theories. Evidence is by definition something that should change the credibility of a claim in a reasonable person’s mind. However, common statistics, such as significance testing and confidence intervals have no interface with concepts of belief, and thus it is unclea...

21 Training in action video games can increase the speed of perceptual processing. However, it is 22 unknown whether video-game training can lead to broad-based changes in higher-level 23 competencies such as cognitive flexibility, a core and neurally distributed component of 24 cognition. To determine whether video gaming can enhance cognitive flexibility and, if so, why 25 these changes occur...

In wanting to summarise evidence from a number of studies a variety of statistical methods have been proposed. Of these the most widely used is the so-called xed effect model in which the individual studies are estimating a single, but unknown, overall population e ect. When there is `considerable' heterogeneity, in terms of the e ect sizes, between the studies the use of a random e ect model h...

This paper deals with the detection of multiple changepoints for independent but non identically distributed observations, which are assumed to be modeled by a linear regression with normal errors. The problem has a natural formulation as a model selection problem and the main difficulty for computing model posterior probabilities is that neither the reference priors nor any form of empirical B...

The main objective of this paper is to find a close link between the adaptive level of 12 significance, presented here, and the sample size. We, statisticians, know of the inconsistency, or 13 paradox, in the current classical tests of significance that are based on p-value statistics that is 14 compared to the canonical significance levels (10%, 5% and 1%): "Raise the sample to reject the null...

Psychological theories are statements of constraint. The role of hypothesis testing in psychology is to test whether specific theoretical constraints hold in data. Bayesian statistics is well suited to the task of finding supporting evidence for constraint, because it allows for comparing evidence for 2 hypotheses against each another. One issue in hypothesis testing is that constraints may hol...

One of the most important methodological problems in psychological research is assessing the reasonableness of null models, which typically constrain a parameter to a specific value such as zero. Bayes factor has been recently advocated in the statistical and psychological literature as a principled means of measuring the evidence in data for various models, including those where parameters are...

We develop a quantum probability model that can account for situations where people’s causal judgments violate the properties of causal Bayes nets and demonstrate how the parameters of our model can be interpreted to provide information about underlying cognitive processes. We implement this model within a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework that allows us to systematically identify indiv...