Information theory provides a concise systematic framework for measuring climate consistency and sensitivity for imperfect models. A suite of increasingly complex physically relevant linear Gaussian models with time periodic features mimicking the seasonal cycle is utilized to elucidate central issues that arise in contemporary climate science. These include the role of model error, the memory ...

abstarct development of greenhouse gases in future periods not only causes change in average amounts of climate variables but also makes variables of this variability affected. then for sure concerning alternations followed with climate variables’ fluctuations and its average amounts in effecting on runoff would make more reliable results. in this inquiry initially fluctuations and average amou...

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at...

Risk management is a well established tool for climate change adaptation. It is facing new challenges with the end of climate stationarity and the need to meaningfully engage people in governance issues. The ways in which conventional approaches to risk management can respond to these challenges are explored. Conventional approaches to risk management are summarized, the manner in which they ar...

The Earth's climate has experienced dramatic changes over the past 22,000 years; however, the total meridional heat transport (MHT) of the climate system remains stable. A 22,000-year-long simulation using an ocean-atmosphere coupled model shows that the changes in atmosphere and ocean MHT are significant but tend to be out of phase in most regions, mitigating the total MHT change, which helps ...

A conceptual model is constructed based upon the Bjerknes hypothesis of tropical atmosphere–ocean interaction. It is shown that strong feedbacks among the trade winds, equatorial zonal sea surface temperature contrast, and upper-ocean heat content occur in the tropical Pacific basin. Coupled atmosphere–ocean dynamics produce both the strong Pacific cold-tongue climate state and the El Niño–Sout...

A HOLOCENE RESEARCH PAPER Abstract: Interannual time-scale associations between fire occurrence and drought indices, the Southern Oscillation, and other synoptic patterns demonstrate that large-scale, long-term atmospheric features are precursors to regional fire activity. However, our knowledge of fire-climate relations over longer (century) timescales is fragmentary because of the rarity of c...

We consider the impact of climate change on the wind energy resource of Ireland using an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations. The RCM dynamically downscales the coarse information provided by the Global Climate Models (GCMs) and provides high resolution information, on a subdomain covering Ireland. The RCM used in this work is the Rossby Center’s RCM (RCA3). The RCA3 model is e...

For teachers looking for a quick and thorough overview of the most basic and compelling data on climate change, an excellent starting place is the introductory section “Current Climate Change” in the Climate Science Primer available through the U.S. Forest Service Climate Change Resource Center (www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/climate-basics/ climate-primer). The primer is text-based and concise and inclu...

G grown in Kentucky are subject to environmental stresses that reduce crop yield and quality, and injure and kill grapevines. Damaging critical winter temperatures, late spring frosts, short growing seasons, and extreme summer temperatures all occur with regularity in regions of Kentucky. However, despite the challenging climate, certain species and cultivars of grapes are grown commercially in...