The development of scenario analysis (SA) to assist decision makers and stakeholders has been growing over the last few years through mainly exploiting qualitative information provided by experts. In this study, we present SA based on the use of qualitative data for strategy planning. We discuss the potential of SA as a decision-support tool, and provide a structured approach for the interpreta...

Climatic change has frequently been identified as a key driver of change in biological communities. These changes can take the form of alterations to population dynamics, phenotypic characters, genetics and the life history of organisms and can have impacts on entire ecosystems. This study presents a novel investigation of how changes in a large scale climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillat...

Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) at the border between USA and Canada. W...

Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses that involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios...

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an important tool to assess the impact of global environmental change. Many species exhibit ecologically relevant intraspecific variation, and few studies have analyzed its relevance for SDM. Here, we compared three SDM techniques for the highly variable species Pinus contorta. First, applying a conventional SDM approach, we used MaxEnt to model the subjec...

Environmental change in terms of land use and climatic changes are posing a serious threat to species distributions and extinctions. Thus in order to predict and mitigate against the effects of environmental change both drivers should be accounted for. Two endemic plant species in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus, Crocus cyprius and Ophrys kotschyi, were used as a case study. We have coupled ...

[1] In the context of investigating modern glacier recession on Kilimanjaro, which began around 1880, this study addresses the glacier regime of the vertical ice walls that typically form the margins of Kilimanjaro’s summit glaciers. These walls have suffered a continuous lateral retreat during the twentieth century. To evaluate the role of solar radiation in maintaining glacier recession on Ki...

This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are ...

Adaptive evolution requires both raw genetic material and an accessible path of high fitness from one fitness peak to another. In this study, we used an introgression line (IL) population to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) for leaf traits thought to be associated with adaptation to precipitation in wild tomatoes (Solanum sect. Lycopersicon; Solanaceae). A QTL sign test showed that several tra...

The geographical location, the shape and the circulation pattern makes the Mediterranean Sea an ideal laboratory to study the interplay between different climatic systems, abrupt climate changes and the response of marine ecosystems. The Ocean Drilling Program Site 963 was drilled in the Northwestern part of the Sicily Channel, the sill that divides the western from the eastern Mediterranean Se...