The paper studies the factors associated with the emergence of systemic banking crises in a sample of developed and developing countries in 1981-94 using a multivariate logit econometric model. The results show that a weak macroeconomic environment with low growth and high inflation makes crises more likely; high real interest rates have also contributed to banking sector fragility, and so does...

Are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises? Efforts to answer this question properly must control for self-selection bias, because countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have sounder economic policies and institutions that make them less likely to experience crises. We employ a matching and propensityscore methodology to address this issue in a...

This paper tests whether consumption pattern in Korea exhibits a time-inconsistent discounting behavior using a quasi-hyperbolic Euler equation estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM). In particular, we examine whether consumers change their discounting behavior during financial crises in 1997 and 2008. The estimation results show that Korean consumers exhibit a time-inconsistent q...

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that h...

This research develops an early warning system (EWS) for equity market crises based on multinomial logit models and variables relating to the information content of index futures and options. We show that the information impounded in S&P 500 futures and options are useful as leading indicators of financial crises. The current literature is absent of such studies. Results reveal that models esti...

A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in contemporary economies. The paper reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies, the signals approach and the multivariate probability model, and their application to study the determinants of banking crises. The use of these models to provide early warnings for c...

Introduction :Vitamin D deficiency is associated with hypertension; however, there is no study on the relationship between vitamin D deficiency and hypertensive crises. This study aimed to determine the relationship between serum vitamin D levels and hypertensive crises. Materials and Methods: This descriptive-analytical, cross-sectional study was conducted on 120 individuals in Shafa Hospital ...

In recent ®nancial crises a bubble, in which asset prices rise, is followed by a collapse and widespread default. Bubbles are caused by agency relationships in the banking sector. Investors use money borrowed from banks to invest in risky assets, which are relatively attractive because investors can avoid losses in low payoff states by defaulting on the loan. This risk shifting leads investors ...

Recessions and other crises seem to occur without any large exogenous shocks. One theory is that this is due to strategic complementarities: the incentive to invest is stronger if others are expected to invest. If, in addition, each investor observes a slightly noisy signal of the true fundamentals, a crisis occurs whenever fundamentals fall below a certain threshold (Morris and Shin, AER 1998)...

Wars and natural disasters causing thousands of deaths and forcing millions to fl ee occur frequently and are widely reported to a global audience. However, responses in terms of charity donations, demonstrations, political response and military intervention are dramatically different between one case and the next. When and why do we care about victims of humanitarian crises? Michael Gross inve...