• ORA vs. B>1 indicates a higher response rate in favour of treatment A. • The DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) is commonly used to select fixed vs. random effects model • DIC represents a trade-off between model adequacy and complexity (i.e. complex models, for example a random effect vs a fixed effect model, are penalised) • The model associated with the lowest DIC is selected, considerin...

We formulate a bivariate stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with correlated jumps and volatilities. An MCMC Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm is proposed to estimate the model’s parameters and latent state variables (jumps and stochastic volatilities) given observed returns. The methodology is successfully tested on several artificially generated bivariate time series and then on t...

This paper proposes two types of stochastic correlation structures for Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV) models, namely the constant correlation (CC) MSV and dynamic correlation (DC) MSV models, from which the stochastic covariance structures could be obtained easily. Both structures can be used for purposes of optimal portfolio and risk management, and for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR...

Conditional copula models are flexible tools for modelling complex dependence structures in regression settings. We construct Bayesian inference for the conditional copula model adapted to regression settings in which the bivariate outcome is continuous or mixed. The dependence between the copula parameter and the covariate is modelled using cubic splines. The proposed joint Bayesian inference ...

Progress in lithography and nanofabrication @E. Di Fabrizio et al., Nature ~London! 401, 895 ~1999!# has made it possible to apply differential interference contrast ~DIC! in x-ray microscopy using an original x-ray doublet lens based on two specially developed zone plates. Switching from bright-field imaging ~absorption contrast! to x-ray DIC, we observe, similar to visible-light microscopy, a...

background & aim: in the survival data with long-term survivors the event has not occurred for all the patients despite long-term follow-up, so the survival time for a certain percent is censored at the  end  of the  study.  mixture  cure  model  was  introduced  by boag,  1949  for  reaching  a  more efficient analysis of this set of data. because of some disadvantages of this model non-mixtur...

We consider model selection based on information criteria for classi cation. In classi cation, a class y is guessed from an attribute x based on the true conditional probability P (yjx), where x 2 X, y 2 Y , and X and Y are in nite and nite sets. In model selection, given examples, we select the model that minimizes an information criterion. The information criteria we address in this paper are...

In this paper we propose a modification of the Divergence Information Criterion (DIC) for the determination of the order of an autoregressive process and show that it is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected overall discrepancy. Further, we use Monte Carlo methods and various Data Generating Processes for small, medium and large sample sizes in order to explore the capabilities o...

Predictive Alternatives in Bayesian Model Selection by Womack, Andrew Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics, Washington University in St. Louis, May, 2011. Professor Jeff Gill, Chairperson Model comparison and hypothesis testing is an integral part of all data analyses. In this thesis, I present two new families of information criteria that can be used to perform model comparison. In Chapter 1, I...